American Democracy is at Best A Semi-Rational Process

 

“Political language … is designed to make lies sound truthful and murder respectable, and to give an appearance of solidity to pure wind.”  George Orwell in Politics and the English Language, 1946.

 

In the closing month of the federal election for President, I think it is useful to consider my previous comments on the Goldwater Rule and Does the Insurrection End The Debate on the Goldwater Rule.  The rule was promulgated by the American Psychiatric Association to prevent casual comments about psychiatric diagnoses of candidates when they had not been examined and given permission for those diagnostic evaluations.

I have always been in favor of this rule largely because it is outside the scope of psychiatric practice and like many forensic settings there can be a prominent conflict of interest based on political affiliations.  It also turns the diagnostic process on its head in that it is no longer used for the benefit of the patient, but the benefit or lack of benefit falls to third parties.  And finally, whenever psychiatric diagnosis is used in the press or other forms of common usage they lose their real meaning. They are no longer useful observations but, in many cases, become ad hominem attacks.

I have not counted the number of comments about narcissistic personality disorder, but it has grown significantly since the 2020 Presidential election and several commentaries that Trump had that disorder.  Antisocial personality disorder and psychopathy (a trait rather than a formal disorder) have also been used to describe him.  Since the terms became more visible, they have been widely applied.  You Tube and TikTok videos suggest how to make the diagnosis yourself or at least recognize it.  They describe typical speech patterns and how you should respond.  Many describe the red flags.  After watching this material none of it seems useful to a psychiatrist who makes the diagnosis and provides treatment. 

There seems to be a significant overlap with people who are difficult to get along with – often in asymmetrical roles like employer-employee.  Do the conflicts that typically happen in these situations rise to the level of a psychiatric diagnosis?  Do conflicts and misunderstanding that occur in other interpersonal relationships rise to that level? Probably not.  But there is a whole lot of videos encouraging people to make that diagnosis.   

The original arguments for making a psychiatric diagnosis on former President Trump were basically threefold.  First, that it was a professional obligation.  Psychiatrists were obliged to warn the American people about the dangers of any diagnosis basically as a public service.  There are several problems with that approach – the most significant being that diagnoses are associated with a wide range of behavior of varying severity and not predictive of anything specific.  It is unlikely that any diagnosis would have predicted the wide variety of significant problems that Trump exhibited following the election. The other problem of course is that it removes the Constitutional threshold for action by the Cabinet and replaces it with a much lower threshold – the psychiatric diagnosis.  It is basically the reason why people do not undergo civil commitment or guardianship proceedings based on a diagnosis.  The law requires obvious behavior that can be observed by any lay person. The 25^th Amendment standard is “ a written declaration that the President is unable to discharge the powers and duties of his office” from either the President himself or a “majority of either the principal officers of the executive department or of such other body as Congress…”  The determination is strictly based on lay observation and not medical or psychiatric evaluations.  Second that it provided additional information for voters that they could use in making their decision.  And finally, the somewhat grandiose assumption that it may be a superior method than the judgment of officials mentioned in the 25^th Amendment. All of those assumptions have failed at multiple levels.

Rather than be concerned about Trump’s diagnosis this may be a question of voter capacity or competence.  In other words, is the voter using available information to make a rational choice?  And can the available information be analyzed rationally?  That requires more than just stating a preference.  It requires a rationale for casting the vote. This is also a difficult measure because there is a value system baked in to some of these decisions.  For example, some votes are based on single issues or traditions like always voting for members of a certain party. Some votes are based on issues like abortion, guns, and censorship even when it is clear the results have been worsening medical care for women, gun extremism, and book banning that includes shutting down some school libraries. The value system can also include extremism like guns, racism and antisemitism.  Even though most reasonable people would agree those values have no place in modern society – they do not disqualify people who value those ideas and vote on that basis.  All of this illustrates why voting is a semi-rational process. On that basis you can also ignore all the negatives that members of the same party or Cabinet say about a candidate’s intellect and character.

The only inconsistency in the law that occurs is that capacity to vote is considered in guardianship and conservatorship decisions by the court.  In my experience I have seen the county forms, but in the hundreds of assessments that I have done – capacity or competency to vote was never a dimension that I commented on.  Associated capacities for entering marriage and contracts were also typically listed but not commented on.  In practice it may be that people who are under guardianship or conservatorship are not offered a trip to the polls or a contract but I cannot say for sure.

The polls themselves handle the issue like everything else in the law and politics as a contentious issue.  For example, these are direct quotes from Minnesota Statutes regarding election procedures:

“Mental capacity is a question of fact for judges of election.” Op. 82, Atty. Gen. Rep. 1942, October 22, 1942.  p. 26

and

“Provision of Minnesota Constitution prohibiting a person under guardianship from voting at any election in the state did not violate the Equal Protection

Clauses of the U.S. and Minnesota Constitutions, since pursuant to Minnesota statute, persons under guardianship were presumed to retain the right to vote, and the constitutional prohibition against voting based on guardianship status applied only when there had been an individualized judicial finding of incapacity to vote. Minnesota Voters Alliance v. Ritchie, 890 F. Supp.2d 1106 (D. Minn. 2012).”  p. 43

The county auditor shall mail a notice indicating the person's name, address, precinct, and polling place to any registered voter whose civil rights have been restored after a felony conviction; who has been removed from under a guardianship of the person under which the person did not retain the right to vote; or who has been restored to capacity by the court after being ineligible to vote. The notice must require that it be returned if not deliverable”.  P. 386

I have never heard of a single situation where an election judge challenged a voter based on their mental capacity and do not understand how that would happen unless they were exhibiting signs of severe mental illness and were disruptive.

All these considerations point to the fact that voting and politics in the United States and elsewhere is a semi-rational process.  It was designed that way by the founders.  There are minimal qualifications to run for office - basically age, citizenship, and in some cases residency requirements. It is interesting that you cannot vote in many states if you are convicted of a felony but that does not disqualify you from running for President.  The top issues for most voters are not rational decisions.  I wrote a recent post on the fact that the President has little to do with the economy and an academic analysis showing Democrats were much better for the economy could not be explained rationally. That type of analysis can be applied to any of the top issues that voters are considering. There is one candidate who has been severely criticized for intellectual and character defects that include ignoring an attempt to overthrow the US government, lying for 4 years about an election outcome, lying more recently about disaster relief, and being convicted of multiple felonies. A significant number of voters and politicians in his own party elect to ignore these facts.  On the other hand members of his own party have endorsed the opposition candidate and actively campaigned for her. Forty of 44 cabinet and staff members of his own administration have said he should never be in the White House again.

This election exposes all the ugliness of American democracy that was previously not discussed.  All it took was a candidate who was more focused on himself and a few people at the highest income levels, disingenuous antiestablishment rhetoric, a lot of name calling, and some active obstructionism to real solutions.

My guess is the Founders of the Republic – did not see that coming.   

 

George Dawson, MD, DFAPA

 

References:

1:  2024 MINNESOTA ELECTION LAWS Office of the Minnesota Secretary of State, Elections Division. Annotations provided by Minnesota Attorney General.  Accessed on October 11, 2024.  https://www.sos.state.mn.us/media/5067/minnesota-election-laws-statutes-and-rules.pdf

 

Graphics Credit:

1:  Trump Photo:  Gage Skidmore from Surprise, AZ, United States of America, CC BY-SA 2.0 <https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-sa/2.0>, via Wikimedia Commons" https://commons.wikimedia.org/wiki/File:Donald_Trump_(52250930172)_(cropped).jpg

2:  Harris Photo:  Lawrence Jackson, Kamala Harris Vice Presidential Portrait.  Public domain, via Wikimedia Commons" https://commons.wikimedia.org/wiki/File:Kamala_Harris_Vice_Presidential_Portrait.jpg

 

No Way To Run A Democracy.....

 

 

CBS news came out with an analysis this morning that most Republican mid-term election candidates are election deniers.  That is 308 out of 597 total.  They agree with former President Trump that he actually won the 2020 election, despite the fact that there is absolutely no evidence to support that claim.  The evidence is lacking even when analyzed by Republicans and judges and attorneys who are Republican appointees. When that claim is reported in the news these days it is characterized as a lie. Even apart from the news media, the January 6^th Committee has presented direct evidence that this claim was inaccurate and had no supporting evidence and that it also formed the basis for the coordinated attack on the Capitol and an attempt by former President Trump and his associates to overthrow the newly elected government of the United States.

What should be most concerning for any citizen of the United States is that attempted insurrection. There is a good chance that if the current crop of Republican candidates – most of whom are overt election deniers become the majority in the House that former President Trump and his associates will not be held accountable for this action. That is unprecedented in any democracy and it flaunts the rule of law and political convention of the United States. If the insurrection had succeeded – the United States as we know it would cease to exist. Democracy instead would be replaced by a Republican party of moral and gun extremists.

Instead of focusing on preserving the Republic – voters seem focused on the economy and inflation – as though any group of politicians has a more favorable history in that area. Over the course of my lifetime, we have had worse inflation, much worse unemployment, 10 recessions, 2 economic crises that nearly collapsed the world economy, and 30 yr fixed mortgage rates at least twice as high as they are now.  The people who saved the economy were professional economists from the Federal Reserve who are appointed and not elected officials. Elected officials consistently have the opportunity to pass legislation to reduce financial market risk due to speculation, but they seem to lose interest every time one of these crises has passed.  In this case both inflation and the possible recession can be explained by historical events (pandemic, Russian invasion of Ukraine) affecting the supply side and driving up prices. Rising interest rates to decrease demand and reduce inflation have made increased the cost of borrowing and that comes following a long period of artificially low interest rates that included low interest rates for savings accounts. In some cases, money market and bond funds were paying negative interest.  

I present the following graph as economic evidence. It is not exhaustive but it illustrates my point. I thought about adding a timeline of Federal Reserve Chairs but ran out of time. The national debt increases substantially under all presidents. The recessions are the shaded areas. Major crises in the economy occurred with the Savings and Loan Crisis (1982-1989), Long Term Capital Management liquidation (1998) and the Subprime Mortgage Crisis of 2007-2010.  The graph extends to August of 2022 with unemployment at 3.5% and Sticky Price Consumer Price Index of 6.39%.   Republican politicians are saying this is the highest inflation rate in 40 years.  What they are not saying is that it is also the highest rate of corporate profits in 70 years and the Federal Reserve has made interest rate increases that are already taking effect in the housing market. (click to enlarge)

I say that the voters seem focused on the economy because it is hard to get valid news about voter preferences from major networks focused on either balancing one party against the other (when no such symmetry exists) or acting essentially like the public relations department of the Republican party. Viewers used to be able to turn on the news and watch reliable journalists deliver the facts, but now they have a choice to listen to a broadcaster who parrots their political ideology. The facts take a distant second place.  There is no clearer example than election denial and all of its ugly correlates like voter suppression and political violence. 

There is only one party that has multiple members endorsing both of those options.  To listen to some of those candidates today – they make it seem like the opposition party has similar problems. There were no Democrats advocating for the violent overthrow of the US government.  There were no Democrats addressing violent groups and suggesting that they “stand by”.  There were no Democrats writing and passing permitless carry gun laws at a time when gun homicides and suicides are high and school shootings continue unabated.  There were no Democrats passing laws that allow heavily armed men wearing body armor and carrying assault weapons to gather in proximity to a legislative body and intimidate them. There is no symmetry between parties on the issue of political violence, gun violence, and the orderly transitions between elections. 

I could continue but realize that this scarcely read blog and the lateness of this post will probably not change much. I will end by posting what I consider the top issues to be in order of importance. I have posted before that I am a long time small “i” independent but in the current Constitutional Crisis I don’t have much of a choice and I have already voted. The vote I cast last week required 2 forms of ID, my address had to be confirmed in an electronic database and I had to sign a registry and one of the two envelopes containing my paper ballot.  That sealed paperwork was directly observed and signed off by an election worker.  This is what I voted on:

1:  Preservation of American Democracy. No insurrection against the government can stand and none of the conspirators should go unpunished.  Any party claiming to be the Law and Order party should understand this.  That party is trying to make crime an issue and it is hard to say if the media or the GOP is the reason for this focus - but the reality is that there has not been an increase in violent crime and there has been a 30 year trend in a positive direction. 

2:  Voter Rights. The Big Lie about the 2020 election was a variation of the big lie about election problems in the United States.  That lie is used to restrict access to voters and make it more difficult for citizens to cast their ballot. Lower income Americans are disproportionately affected.  A variation on that theme is intimidating voters and election officials. That is an ongoing process and it is encouraged by politicians spreading the Big Lie about both the election process and the integrity of the voting process. There is no evidence that either has been compromised. 

3:  Civil Rights.  The unprecedented attack on Roe at the level of the Supreme Court is really the culmination of Republican activism dating back to the Carter administration. At the time a Republican activist convinced fundamental Christians that they should be politically interested in the abortion issue and it was used to attempt to protect school segregation. They created one of the most divisive issues in American politics to advance their interests and made it seem like it was a religious issue.  This is a doubling down of moral extremism.  In other words moral superiority to cover an essentially immoral act.  There are not many positions that are more cynical.

4: Gun Regulation. Gun carnage continues unabated and the GOP and their justices in the Supreme Court have no reservations about allowing it to continue.  Republicans everywhere are rationalizing it as a problem with mental illness, when the prevalence of mental illness is the same across all countries and only the United States has mass shooters shooting children on a regular basis, gun homicide as a leading cause of death in children and young black men, and extremely high levels of gun homicides and suicides.  There are currently 25 states that allow permitless concealed carry of firearms.  All of this from a politicized reading of the archaic language of the Second Amendment. That alone would probably not be enough.  It also takes the fear tactic that the "government", "liberals", etc are "coming for your guns."  The reality is that there are so many weapons in the country - finding them and rounding them up would be an impossible task for anyone. And of course - nobody is interested in doing that. 

5:  Strengthening NATO.  The Biden administration has handled the crisis in Europe and rebuilding the NATO alliance expertly and they are not getting nearly enough credit. A secondary goal should be containing terrorism with our allies that comes in all forms including state terrorism that we are witnessing from Russia, North Korea, and Iran. It is likely there would be a much different outcome under a Trump administration.

5:  Nuclear non-proliferation: Every possible effort must be made to ensure that nuclear weapons are not used again.  There is too much loose talk about how limited tactical nuclear weapons would release less radiation and that a small local nuclear war would be "winnable" by somebody. Climate change should be a wake up call illustrating that even small changes in the environment can lead to catastrophic global changes. The detonation of nuclear weapons will not determine winners and losers. Mankind will lose and civilization will end.  

6:  Climate Activism:  As climate change gets more and more obvious the party that denied it was happening clearly has no solutions.  The infrastructure bill passed by the Biden administration was a major step in the right direction but even that is not enough. More changes need to follow to reduce carbon dioxide emissions and remove permanent environmental contaminants from the environment.

7:  Social programs.  There are Republican legislators who want to cancel Social Security and Medicare or euphemistically review it every 5 years and decide whether or not to cancel it.  Every person who has paid into those programs needs to be assured that they will get the agreed upon benefits.  Republicans use socialist rhetoric to impress upon their followers that the “socialists” want to take over the government and restrict their freedom.  In fact, social democracies are some of the fairest systems in the world and the United States has had social programs for a long time. Social programs in a democratic republic have nothing to so with a socialist government.

8:  Public health Initiatives: COVID-19 denialism was a major factor in unnecessary mortality and morbidity from that pandemic and there is no doubt who the most significant players in that denialism were. As the climate deteriorates and mankind is in closer proximity to millions of novel viruses in the wild – we need to infrastructure to assess those threats and either contain them or treat the outbreaks. We need people who understand science as a process and what needs to happen in this area.  Instead we have Republican politicians bragging about ignoring public health measures.

9:  A Coherent Immigration Policy:  Building walls and playing games with the lives of undocumented immigrants is not a coherent policy. It will take more comprehensive planning and aid to countries in Central and South America.  In addition the United States has a lower percentage of foreign born citizens than many European countries and Canada as well as a labor shortage so that increasing the number of legal immigrants each year can potentially decrease the number of people seeking political asylum. 

10:  Simplified Tax Policy:  Taxes are always a political football. Promise of no new taxes and tax cuts are not realistic, especially considering the current national debt.  A better plan is to make taxes more transparent and easier to complete. Business taxes should not be eliminated and should be consistent year-to-year and not a disincentive to doing business in the United States.

That is what I voted on.  It does not come down to a single issue for me.  It does not come down to voting for myths rather than reality.

But it does come down to a single party.

 

George Dawson, MD, DFAPA

Extremely relevant late breaking stories relevant to the above post:

1: Election deniers in Minnesota are training some election judges. Link - there are widespread efforts with various levels of organization by election deniers to interfere with the election process. This is a story from 2 days ago.

2:  What Fortune 500 Companies Said After Jan. 6 vs. What They Did.  Link - major US corporations said they would suspend political donations to election deniers and insurrectionists following January 6 - but those donations have resumed to the tune of $13 million.

3:  A message from Billie Eilish on the importance of voting. She describes the top issues highlighted above and I hope her followers and fans are able to follow through with her advice:  https://www.instagram.com/p/Ckj-ihtLw3G/?utm_source=ig_web_copy_link

4:  Charles Blow.  Dancing Near the Edge of a Lost Democracy.  New York Times November 6, 2022   https://www.nytimes.com/2022/11/06/opinion/midterms-democracy.html

"America is one bad election away from being a memory."

5:  Putin ally Yevgeny Prigozhin admits interfering in US elections.

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2022/nov/07/putin-ally-yevgeny-prigozhin-admits-interfering-in-us-elections

They are obviously not interfering in the direction of more democracy.

6:  Bill Maher's analysis on the even of the election. Certainly hope he is wrong but if he isn't these are a few more reasons:

Democracy's Deathbed | Real Time with Bill Maher (HBO)

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=HKVBvooZ2c8

7:  Office of Intelligence and Analysis Operations in Portland April 20, 2021

https://www.wyden.senate.gov/imo/media/doc/I&A%20and%20OGC%20Portland%20Reports.pdf

Remember all of the reports about Antifa - the secret left wing terrorist organization that was supposed to be fighting the police and causing general unrest in the riots following George Floyd's death.  At the time is was pretty clear it was a myth to rationalize right wing militias showing up heavily armed to maintain law and order.  This mildly redacted report shows how US intelligence failed to show that any such organization existed.

8:  Democratic upset in U.S. midterms could roil markets, options mavens say

https://www.yahoo.com/finance/news/democratic-upset-u-midterms-could-060916343.html

Nothing like last minute pro-GOP economic propaganda.  Three things:

1.  The current polls are based on the 1% of people using land lines who agree to take the poll.  With that level of sampling don't be too surprised if polls are wrong as they have been in the past.  There is no "upset" in that context only inaccurate polls.

2.  Why would the average voter be remotely interested in what "options mavens" have to say. Anyone who has followed financial news knows that it is often created to move markets in a favorable way and not to favor the casual investor or little guy. 

3.  See more objective data from the St. Louis FRED below.

9:  The Recent Rise of U.S. National Wealth

https://research.stlouisfed.org/publications/economic-synopses/2022/10/19/the-recent-rise-of-u-s-national-wealth?

Written by professional economists and not politicians.  Was this expansion due to another tech bubble?

"If this rise is driven by another asset bubble instead of the reasons mentioned above, then this trend is likely to cause another recession. Unfortunately, it is difficult to identify an asset bubble until after it has burst."

The current state of economics.

10:  Election workers brace for a torrent of threats: ‘I KNOW WHERE YOU SLEEP’:

https://www.yahoo.com/news/election-workers-brace-threats-know-155038219.html

And let's be honest - these threats are the direct result of the Big Lie, The Insurrection, and the fueling continued political violence by the GOP.  There are no Democrats threatening election workers.

11:  Voting Machine Problems in Arizona Fuel Right-Wing Fraud Claims

https://www.yahoo.com/news/voting-machine-problems-arizona-fuel-195213577.html

Trump spreads voter fraud claims on this election day, despite Republican official stating that there is no problem.

12:  John Oliver on Election Subversion:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Y0LA7Ff2hgs

13:  The gasoline price gambit:

Here is a link to a graph I just made on 12/6/2022 on crude oil prices per barrel versus gasoline prices per gallon.   The explanation of price volatility is in this post.  Don't let any politician from either party use these prices swings to suggest that somebody other than oil speculators and production companies are responsible.

https://gdpsychtech.blogspot.com/2022/12/graphs-from-fred.html

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