Thursday, November 3, 2022

No Way To Run A Democracy.....

 



 

CBS news came out with an analysis this morning that most Republican mid-term election candidates are election deniers.  That is 308 out of 597 total.  They agree with former President Trump that he actually won the 2020 election, despite the fact that there is absolutely no evidence to support that claim.  The evidence is lacking even when analyzed by Republicans and judges and attorneys who are Republican appointees. When that claim is reported in the news these days it is characterized as a lie. Even apart from the news media, the January 6th Committee has presented direct evidence that this claim was inaccurate and had no supporting evidence and that it also formed the basis for the coordinated attack on the Capitol and an attempt by former President Trump and his associates to overthrow the newly elected government of the United States.

What should be most concerning for any citizen of the United States is that attempted insurrection. There is a good chance that if the current crop of Republican candidates – most of whom are overt election deniers become the majority in the House that former President Trump and his associates will not be held accountable for this action. That is unprecedented in any democracy and it flaunts the rule of law and political convention of the United States. If the insurrection had succeeded – the United States as we know it would cease to exist. Democracy instead would be replaced by a Republican party of moral and gun extremists.

Instead of focusing on preserving the Republic – voters seem focused on the economy and inflation – as though any group of politicians has a more favorable history in that area. Over the course of my lifetime, we have had worse inflation, much worse unemployment, 10 recessions, 2 economic crises that nearly collapsed the world economy, and 30 yr fixed mortgage rates at least twice as high as they are now.  The people who saved the economy were professional economists from the Federal Reserve who are appointed and not elected officials. Elected officials consistently have the opportunity to pass legislation to reduce financial market risk due to speculation, but they seem to lose interest every time one of these crises has passed.  In this case both inflation and the possible recession can be explained by historical events (pandemic, Russian invasion of Ukraine) affecting the supply side and driving up prices. Rising interest rates to decrease demand and reduce inflation have made increased the cost of borrowing and that comes following a long period of artificially low interest rates that included low interest rates for savings accounts. In some cases, money market and bond funds were paying negative interest.  

I present the following graph as economic evidence. It is not exhaustive but it illustrates my point. I thought about adding a timeline of Federal Reserve Chairs but ran out of time. The national debt increases substantially under all presidents. The recessions are the shaded areas. Major crises in the economy occurred with the Savings and Loan Crisis (1982-1989), Long Term Capital Management liquidation (1998) and the Subprime Mortgage Crisis of 2007-2010.  The graph extends to August of 2022 with unemployment at 3.5% and Sticky Price Consumer Price Index of 6.39%.   Republican politicians are saying this is the highest inflation rate in 40 years.  What they are not saying is that it is also the highest rate of corporate profits in 70 years and the Federal Reserve has made interest rate increases that are already taking effect in the housing market. (click to enlarge)



I say that the voters seem focused on the economy because it is hard to get valid news about voter preferences from major networks focused on either balancing one party against the other (when no such symmetry exists) or acting essentially like the public relations department of the Republican party. Viewers used to be able to turn on the news and watch reliable journalists deliver the facts, but now they have a choice to listen to a broadcaster who parrots their political ideology. The facts take a distant second place.  There is no clearer example than election denial and all of its ugly correlates like voter suppression and political violence. 

There is only one party that has multiple members endorsing both of those options.  To listen to some of those candidates today – they make it seem like the opposition party has similar problems. There were no Democrats advocating for the violent overthrow of the US government.  There were no Democrats addressing violent groups and suggesting that they “stand by”.  There were no Democrats writing and passing permitless carry gun laws at a time when gun homicides and suicides are high and school shootings continue unabated.  There were no Democrats passing laws that allow heavily armed men wearing body armor and carrying assault weapons to gather in proximity to a legislative body and intimidate them. There is no symmetry between parties on the issue of political violence, gun violence, and the orderly transitions between elections. 

I could continue but realize that this scarcely read blog and the lateness of this post will probably not change much. I will end by posting what I consider the top issues to be in order of importance. I have posted before that I am a long time small “i” independent but in the current Constitutional Crisis I don’t have much of a choice and I have already voted. The vote I cast last week required 2 forms of ID, my address had to be confirmed in an electronic database and I had to sign a registry and one of the two envelopes containing my paper ballot.  That sealed paperwork was directly observed and signed off by an election worker.  This is what I voted on:

1:  Preservation of American Democracy. No insurrection against the government can stand and none of the conspirators should go unpunished.  Any party claiming to be the Law and Order party should understand this.  That party is trying to make crime an issue and it is hard to say if the media or the GOP is the reason for this focus - but the reality is that there has not been an increase in violent crime and there has been a 30 year trend in a positive direction. 

2:  Voter Rights. The Big Lie about the 2020 election was a variation of the big lie about election problems in the United States.  That lie is used to restrict access to voters and make it more difficult for citizens to cast their ballot. Lower income Americans are disproportionately affected.  A variation on that theme is intimidating voters and election officials. That is an ongoing process and it is encouraged by politicians spreading the Big Lie about both the election process and the integrity of the voting process. There is no evidence that either has been compromised. 

3:  Civil Rights.  The unprecedented attack on Roe at the level of the Supreme Court is really the culmination of Republican activism dating back to the Carter administration. At the time a Republican activist convinced fundamental Christians that they should be politically interested in the abortion issue and it was used to attempt to protect school segregation. They created one of the most divisive issues in American politics to advance their interests and made it seem like it was a religious issue.  This is a doubling down of moral extremism.  In other words moral superiority to cover an essentially immoral act.  There are not many positions that are more cynical.

4: Gun Regulation. Gun carnage continues unabated and the GOP and their justices in the Supreme Court have no reservations about allowing it to continue.  Republicans everywhere are rationalizing it as a problem with mental illness, when the prevalence of mental illness is the same across all countries and only the United States has mass shooters shooting children on a regular basis, gun homicide as a leading cause of death in children and young black men, and extremely high levels of gun homicides and suicides.  There are currently 25 states that allow permitless concealed carry of firearms.  All of this from a politicized reading of the archaic language of the Second Amendment. That alone would probably not be enough.  It also takes the fear tactic that the "government", "liberals", etc are "coming for your guns."  The reality is that there are so many weapons in the country - finding them and rounding them up would be an impossible task for anyone. And of course - nobody is interested in doing that. 

5:  Strengthening NATO.  The Biden administration has handled the crisis in Europe and rebuilding the NATO alliance expertly and they are not getting nearly enough credit. A secondary goal should be containing terrorism with our allies that comes in all forms including state terrorism that we are witnessing from Russia, North Korea, and Iran. It is likely there would be a much different outcome under a Trump administration.

5:  Nuclear non-proliferation: Every possible effort must be made to ensure that nuclear weapons are not used again.  There is too much loose talk about how limited tactical nuclear weapons would release less radiation and that a small local nuclear war would be "winnable" by somebody. Climate change should be a wake up call illustrating that even small changes in the environment can lead to catastrophic global changes. The detonation of nuclear weapons will not determine winners and losers. Mankind will lose and civilization will end.  

6:  Climate Activism:  As climate change gets more and more obvious the party that denied it was happening clearly has no solutions.  The infrastructure bill passed by the Biden administration was a major step in the right direction but even that is not enough. More changes need to follow to reduce carbon dioxide emissions and remove permanent environmental contaminants from the environment.

7:  Social programs.  There are Republican legislators who want to cancel Social Security and Medicare or euphemistically review it every 5 years and decide whether or not to cancel it.  Every person who has paid into those programs needs to be assured that they will get the agreed upon benefits.  Republicans use socialist rhetoric to impress upon their followers that the “socialists” want to take over the government and restrict their freedom.  In fact, social democracies are some of the fairest systems in the world and the United States has had social programs for a long time. Social programs in a democratic republic have nothing to so with a socialist government.

8:  Public health Initiatives: COVID-19 denialism was a major factor in unnecessary mortality and morbidity from that pandemic and there is no doubt who the most significant players in that denialism were. As the climate deteriorates and mankind is in closer proximity to millions of novel viruses in the wild – we need to infrastructure to assess those threats and either contain them or treat the outbreaks. We need people who understand science as a process and what needs to happen in this area.  Instead we have Republican politicians bragging about ignoring public health measures.

9:  A Coherent Immigration Policy:  Building walls and playing games with the lives of undocumented immigrants is not a coherent policy. It will take more comprehensive planning and aid to countries in Central and South America.  In addition the United States has a lower percentage of foreign born citizens than many European countries and Canada as well as a labor shortage so that increasing the number of legal immigrants each year can potentially decrease the number of people seeking political asylum. 

10:  Simplified Tax Policy:  Taxes are always a political football. Promise of no new taxes and tax cuts are not realistic, especially considering the current national debt.  A better plan is to make taxes more transparent and easier to complete. Business taxes should not be eliminated and should be consistent year-to-year and not a disincentive to doing business in the United States.

That is what I voted on.  It does not come down to a single issue for me.  It does not come down to voting for myths rather than reality.

But it does come down to a single party.

 

George Dawson, MD, DFAPA


Extremely relevant late breaking stories relevant to the above post:

1: Election deniers in Minnesota are training some election judges. Link - there are widespread efforts with various levels of organization by election deniers to interfere with the election process. This is a story from 2 days ago.

2:  What Fortune 500 Companies Said After Jan. 6 vs. What They Did.  Link - major US corporations said they would suspend political donations to election deniers and insurrectionists following January 6 - but those donations have resumed to the tune of $13 million.

3:  A message from Billie Eilish on the importance of voting. She describes the top issues highlighted above and I hope her followers and fans are able to follow through with her advice:  https://www.instagram.com/p/Ckj-ihtLw3G/?utm_source=ig_web_copy_link

4:  Charles Blow.  Dancing Near the Edge of a Lost Democracy.  New York Times November 6, 2022   https://www.nytimes.com/2022/11/06/opinion/midterms-democracy.html

"America is one bad election away from being a memory."

5:  Putin ally Yevgeny Prigozhin admits interfering in US elections.

They are obviously not interfering in the direction of more democracy.

6:  Bill Maher's analysis on the even of the election. Certainly hope he is wrong but if he isn't these are a few more reasons:

Democracy's Deathbed | Real Time with Bill Maher (HBO)

7:  Office of Intelligence and Analysis Operations in Portland April 20, 2021

Remember all of the reports about Antifa - the secret left wing terrorist organization that was supposed to be fighting the police and causing general unrest in the riots following George Floyd's death.  At the time is was pretty clear it was a myth to rationalize right wing militias showing up heavily armed to maintain law and order.  This mildly redacted report shows how US intelligence failed to show that any such organization existed.

8:  Democratic upset in U.S. midterms could roil markets, options mavens say

Nothing like last minute pro-GOP economic propaganda.  Three things:
1.  The current polls are based on the 1% of people using land lines who agree to take the poll.  With that level of sampling don't be too surprised if polls are wrong as they have been in the past.  There is no "upset" in that context only inaccurate polls.
2.  Why would the average voter be remotely interested in what "options mavens" have to say. Anyone who has followed financial news knows that it is often created to move markets in a favorable way and not to favor the casual investor or little guy
3.  See more objective data from the St. Louis FRED below.


Written by professional economists and not politicians.  Was this expansion due to another tech bubble?

"If this rise is driven by another asset bubble instead of the reasons mentioned above, then this trend is likely to cause another recession. Unfortunately, it is difficult to identify an asset bubble until after it has burst."

The current state of economics.

10:  Election workers brace for a torrent of threats: ‘I KNOW WHERE YOU SLEEP’:

And let's be honest - these threats are the direct result of the Big Lie, The Insurrection, and the fueling continued political violence by the GOP.  There are no Democrats threatening election workers.

11:  Voting Machine Problems in Arizona Fuel Right-Wing Fraud Claims

Trump spreads voter fraud claims on this election day, despite Republican official stating that there is no problem.

12:  John Oliver on Election Subversion:

13:  The gasoline price gambit:

Here is a link to a graph I just made on 12/6/2022 on crude oil prices per barrel versus gasoline prices per gallon.   The explanation of price volatility is in this post.  Don't let any politician from either party use these prices swings to suggest that somebody other than oil speculators and production companies are responsible.




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3 comments:

  1. I wish there were more voters as well-informed and focused on the issues as you are. You're a past president of the Minnesota Psychiatric Society. Have you ever considered running for any other political office?

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    1. As a small "i" independent I was a colossal failure as the "first Internet candidate for the US senate" in the year 2006. I did experience first hand the animosity of both parties when I tried to campaign on that basis - both door-to-door and at the airport. I ran it off of the old Geocities web hosting site and a small fragment (partial page) of that original site is maintained on a geocities.ws archive site.

      The valuable lesson was that there were echo chambers long before social media called the Democrat and Republican parties. It helped me understand the irrational policies.

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    2. It was suggested to me that I have a "vested interest" in writing this piece. In today's use of language that typically means a financial stake. To recap - I get nothing at all for writing this blog for the past 10 years. There are no sponsors or royalties. If I use a copyrighted figure that is not open access - I have to decide if I am going to pay out of pocket or make my own graphics. So no financial vested interest at all.

      On the non-financial side, I do have a stake in psychiatry because of the good work I have seen happen from the hard work and discipline of the hundreds of colleagues that I know and have collaborated with over the years. I have a stake in the hundreds of medical students, residents and other physicians that I have taught and worked with over the years. I have a stake in making sure that people with problems get proper diagnosis and treatment. That means I have a stake in correcting the repetitive misinformation about the field and the repeated attacks from people who often have a significant financial interest in what they are doing.

      For the purposes of this post - I also have a vested interest in American democracy and don't want to see it go away. Over the course of my lifetime and despite all of the economic ups and downs that I outlined above it has worked fairly well. Unfortunately an estimated 30-40% of the population is more interested in demagogues at this point rather than an inclusive semi-rational political system. As I hoped to point out in the above post - I am not.

      So - I am unapologetic about my personal stake in both the psychiatric profession and American democracy. The analysis of rhetoric is common in my defense of both. I don't get paid a nickel for that effort and never have.

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