I started reading science fiction about space travel when I was a kid. There was no Internet. Television was all broadcast, grainy, and reception was shaky. Radio was mostly focused on music. It was decades after Orson Welles famous radio broadcast of an alien invasion that some people took as reality. All I had was a bookmobile with a science fiction section. I still remember the very first book I read from the bookmobile – When Worlds Collide. By the sixth grade I was writing 3-page science fiction stories myself - largely based on our class following the early space flights.
Over the decades science fiction about space travel
progressed significantly. Even though humans made clear progress – it was
nowhere near the fictional travels to deep space, federations of planets, and
routine interaction with alien life forms. After a brief concern about an
invasion by Martians, the more practical sci-fi has focused on travel to and
colonization of Mars. Just focused on
Mars the stories have become more realistic from a booming future
colony on Mars to a survival film of a solo astronaut on Mars.
Science fiction and fantasies about space travel have moved
squarely outside of science fiction and the cinema these days. They are influencing how billions of dollars
are being spent on Wall Street. Elon
Musk has clearly stated that he intends to send a mission to Mars for the
express purpose of colonizing it. He has
given several dates for his first Mars mission that have come and gone. He has modified his statement several times
so that it now includes taking human consciousness extraplanetary. He also has framed this endeavor as a
necessary move to save humanity. This post is all about why that will probably not
happen and why all of that rhetoric needs to be rejected outright.
From a science perspective and in a single word it comes
down the severe biomedical burden of space travel and the ability of humans to
protect themselves against these dangers. The suggested colonization and possible
terraforming of Mars (modifying the atmosphere, temperature, and surface to
support human life) also creates a massive resource burden on the Earth and its
inhabitants. This post will examine some
of those details and whether or not they have been technically solved.
At first glance Earth and Mars, Earth is an average of 93 million
miles from the Sun and Mars is 142 million miles. Earth is 7,926 miles in diameter compared
with Mars at 4,212 miles. Gravitation on
Mars is 38% of what it Is in Earth (acceleration due to gravity = 3.72 m/s2
compared to 9.82 m/s2). Martian
soil is toxic in that it contains perchlorates, silica and various heavy
metals. Martian soil has been studied as
both regolith (planetary cover) and dust.
Martian dust has a particle size of 3 microns and is composed of silicon
(Si), magnesium (Mg), and iron (Fe).
Based on previous experience with lunar dust it is likely that Martian
dust will be a common contaminant. In
addition, the soil contains perchlorate compounds (ClO4- ) that can alter
thyroid function and cause aplastic anemia.
A variety of illnesses can be produced by this dust including pulmonary,
gastrointestinal, endocrine, and neurological diseases (see table1, Reference
1). Perchlorate is also a significant contaminant of water on Mars. There is no free groundwater but water exists
frozen under the surface and has been suggested as a source of water for
drinking and terraforming. Several very
limited plant experiments have been done with soil simulating Martian
soil. They are typically limited by
species tested and no complete match for soil. An example is that I have not seen is a paper
that tests soil containing perchlorate. Plans to extract water from frozen
underground glaciers that also contain perchlorate are also not available.
Apart from the soil and water problem there is an associated
engineering problem to provide food both for the flight to Mars and post
arrival. For flights all of most of the
food would need to be pre-packaged largely because of the large area needed
to grow food to feed people. This is an
interesting engineering problem that NASA has been working on for at least 30
years. In order to grow plants for food on Mars it will take a highly
controlled environment (pressure, temperature, atmosphere, radiation
protection, lighting and irrigation requirements). These requirements and the rationale are
listed in the table below.
|
Requirement |
Primary Function /
Purpose |
Key Operational
Challenge / Engineering Need |
|
Atmospheric Pressurization |
Keeps water liquid inside plant
tissues; enables respiration and photosynthesis. |
Must maintain >100-150 mbar of internal
pressure against Mars' near-vacuum surface (~6.1 mbar). |
|
Climate & Thermal Control |
Protects crops from extreme cold
(averaging -60 C); maintains optimal growth temperatures. |
Requires heavy thermal insulation,
active heating systems, and automated humidity control. |
|
Radiation Shielding |
Prevents DNA damage, mutations, and
cell degradation from Galactic Cosmic Rays (GCRs) and Solar Particle Events
(SPEs). |
Enclosure must be buried under
several meters of regolith, water layers, or placed inside lava tubes. |
|
Substrate & Water Purification |
Removes toxic perchlorates (0.5-1%) and heavy metals; provides a clean growing medium. |
Requires chemical leaching/flushing
of regolith, or multi-stage filtration and reverse osmosis for harvested
subsurface ice. May require long
distance transport of ice |
|
Supplemental Spectrum Lighting |
Offsets weak Martian solar
irradiance (43% of Earth's) and dust storm dimming; drives photosynthesis. |
Requires high-efficiency PAR LED
arrays, creating a high, continuous electrical power demand. |
|
Buffer Gas Delivery (N2/Ar) |
Dilutes CO2 and O2 to prevent
atmospheric toxicity, metabolic collapse, and fire hazards. |
Requires cryogenic processing units
to extract and concentrate sparse atmospheric nitrogen (~2.6% of Mars' air). |
|
Micro-Ecological Inoculation |
Provides essential soil microbiomes
(nitrogen-fixing bacteria, mycorrhizal fungi) and ensures crop pollination. |
Substrates must be manually seeded
with bio-engineered microbe cultures; requires mechanical or automated
pollinators. |
|
Closed-Loop Waste Recycling |
Recovers nitrogen, phosphorus, and
potassium (NPK); recycles non-edible crop biomass and grey/blackwater. |
Requires onboard bioreactors,
composting, or supercritical water oxidation to maintain nutrient cycles
without Earth resupply. |
|
Sensors & Pathogen Control |
Prevents catastrophic crop loss from
fungal spores, viral blights, or gas imbalances in an isolated ecosystem. |
Demands continuous HEPA/UV-C air
sterilization and automated real-time multispectral monitoring. |
As noted, the food growing on Mars will require significant
electrical energy requirements to design, construct, and maintain the food
growing environment. Controlled growing
experiments by both NASA and Russian programs based on the estimate of 2,500
cal/day for each human suggests that 50-100 m2 is the required
growing area for a combination of plants that will supply the necessary
carbohydrates and proteins. For a
relatively small colony of 1,000 people that would translate to 65-100,000 m2.
An American football field is 7,140 m2 so at the max this would be about 14
football fields in size. Some Mars
promoters have suggested the size of this colony should be 100,000 people. That would be 247 acres or 0.39 square miles
just for food production.
To reduce the size of this facility it would probably be
built vertically in 4-6 layers to reduce the ground level footprint to
16-25,000 m2. That would
contain 300-500,000 m3 of pressurized air to maintain climate
control, humidity, and gas exchange (20-25 m2 of crops under optimal
lighting produces enough oxygen for 1 person).
Additional engineering requirements would be 360-720 megawatt hours (MWh)
of electric power per day, a continuous circulating loop of 5-10 million liters
of pure water, and a one-time structural fill volume of 300-500 metric tons of
nitrogen. This is an unprecedented
engineering challenge. Even if it were
clear that water could be purified and extracted from Martian ice and nitrogen
could be produced from the thin atmosphere all of the initial equipment would
all have to be sent from Earth. That
would take 15-30 heavy lift launches to produce a structure of unknown
durability and maintenance needs. There
is no room for error given the flight time from Earth of 180 days for resupply.
The atmosphere on Mars is a more immediate problem than the
soil and all of the construction work would need to occur in that atmosphere. A
good comparison is seen in the infographic below from the European Space
Agency. Needless to say – the Martian atmosphere as it stands in not compatible
with human life. Living quarters and
suits would need to be as climate and atmosphere controlled as food growing
areas.
A hidden danger that has flown under the radar for some time
is radiation risk. The tables below show the actual measured radiation exposure
to Apollo astronauts by physical dosimeters.
The Mars estimates were also physically measured in unmanned
spacecraft.
|
Apollo Crew Radiation
Exposure |
|||
|
Mission |
Flight Duration |
Lunar Surface Time |
Average Radiation Dose |
|
Apollo 11 |
8 days, 3 hrs |
21 hrs, 38 mins |
1.8 mSv |
|
Apollo 12 |
10 days, 4 hrs |
31 hrs, 31 mins |
5.8 mSv |
|
Apollo 14 |
9 days, 0 hrs |
33 hrs, 31 mins |
11.4 mSv |
|
Apollo 15 |
10 days, 1 hr |
66 hrs, 54 mins |
3.0 mSv |
|
Apollo 16 |
11 days, 1 hr |
71 hrs, 02 mins |
5.1 mSv |
|
Apollo 17 |
12 days, 13 hrs |
74 hrs, 59 mins |
5.5 mSv |
|
Mars Mission Radiation
Exposure |
|||
|
Mission Phase |
Estimated Duration |
Daily Exposure Rate |
Phase Total Dose |
|
Transit to Mars |
~180 days |
~1.8 mSv/day |
~320 mSv |
|
Surface Stay |
~500 days |
~0.64–0.67 mSv/day |
~320 mSv |
|
Return Transit |
~180 days |
~1.8 mSv/day |
~320 mSv |
|
Total Mission |
~860 days |
— |
~1,000 mSv (1.0 Sv) |
The type of radiation is also important. In space, the predominant form is galactic
cosmic rays (GCRs) originating in supernovae.
GCRs consist 87% protons, 12% alpha particles, and 1% HZE heavy nuclei
(Z in this case refers to the atomic number or number of protons) so it can be
read as high atomic number and energy. Comparing GCRs to other common
forms of radiation show that it is at the level of 100 MeV to over 1,000,000
MeV (108 to 1012 eV.
A single GCR proton or heavy ion carries 1,000 to over 10,000,000 times
more energy than a typical gamma ray.
The physical properties of the radiation also dictate the shielding
requirements. X-rays and gamma rays can use high Z materials like lead (Pb)
with a lot of electron density. GCRs
must use low Z materials like water or polyethylene with a lot of hydrogen
density to prevent secondary neutrons produced from spallation when HZE
nuclei hit large nuclei in shielding. That can lead o a tradeoff of space
occupied by the shielding volume and the inevitability that some fraction of
high energy particles will go through.
GCR is about 85% of the expected radiation burden followed
by transient solar flare radiation (10-15%), and background gamma
radiation. The engineering tradeoffs
depend on context (flight versus landed), physical properties of the radiation,
extra fuel and thrust necessary for the flight, predictability of radiation
bursts, and in some cases power requirements in flight. Unless there is literature I have not
accessed, the estimates of total radiation exposure would seem prohibitive for
any long-term settlement of the planet. It
is estimated it would require 1-2 meters of regolith over and inflatable
structure to drop the GCR and secondary neutron flux down to acceptable levels
on Mars. Even a deep under regolith
settlement still has major logistic problems in getting access to purified
water, nitrogen for atmospheric stabilization, HVAC for temp and humidity
regulation, and the power to run it all.
The drain on Earth resources has already begun even before
the first manned Mars launch. SpaceX
has as one of its funding sources the Starlink satellite system. Starlink was designed as low altitude
satellite system to provide Internet access in areas with no cable or fiber
optic access. The low altitudes are necessary to reduce transmission latency
necessary to real time communication. Because of the low altitudes and the
curvature of the Earth, thousands of networked satellites are necessary. An estimated 11,110 functioning satellites
are currently in low Earth orbit (LEO).
Six hundred to a thousand of these satellites fall out of orbit each year
(1-3 per day) burning up in the atmosphere.
In 2026 there will be 100-110 Starlink satellites launched to replace
the satellites falling out of orbit.
Future projections are for 4 to 5 satellites re-entering every day—or
1,500 to 1,800+ satellites falling out of orbit every year. SpaceX has 2 rockets to replace these satellites
– the Falcon 9 that can carry up to 24 satellites and the Starship that can
carry up to 60 satellites.
The environmental burden is significant. Each Falcon 9 launch injects soot into the upper
atmosphere where it remains much longer than on Earth (3-5 years). That soot
absorbs solar radiation and has a 500-fold warming impact on the planet compared
with ground level soot. As the
satellites reenter and burn up aluminum oxide nanoparticles are generated
increasing the risk of ozone depletion and potentially reflect or absorb
incoming solar radiation.
All things considered, the information I can find on the
planned expedition and colonization of Mars has numerous red flags. The bottom line is that it is a massive
engineering undertaking that presents a significant risk to anyone willing to
take a trip to Mars. I highlighted some
of the main risks here but there are many additional details including a paper written
about how to treat radiation sickness during the flight. I did not touch on the
background effects of weightlessness and the associated syndromes. They are significant and require physical
training effort to minimize. Any routine illness in space will not be the same routine
illness that would have happened on Earth.
And the question is – to what end? Are we really expanding human consciousness
into the cosmos – or sending it to a miserable demise? Is staying on Earth
putting all of our survival eggs in one basket or is it the best rationale
decision to keep us alive? And what
about the conflict-of-interest issues. The space business is no longer a
government enterprise carrying forth the aspirations of mankind. It is a multibillion-dollar, for-profit, publicly held enterprise. The colonization of Mars is estimated to cost
over a trillion dollars. That is heavy financial incentive for hyping
space travel and ignoring the current significant environmental costs that are
now funding it.
I have done a significant amount of research on the extraterrestrial
issue and debated another long post on that topic but I will cut to the chase
here instead. There is no evidence that
Earth has ever been visited by extraterrestrial beings. The distances are too great, and the recorded
aerial phenomena too weak to consider as evidence. That does not mean there are
not other intelligent life forms out there – only that if there are - they have
not visited Earth.
|
Planet |
Mean Surface /
Effective Temp (°C) |
Mean Surface /
Effective Temp (°F) |
"Surface"
Definition |
|
Mercury |
167 °C |
333 °F |
Surface varies wildly: -180 °C (-290
°F) at night to 430 °C (800 °F) by day. |
|
Venus |
464 °C |
867 °F |
Solid surface; runaway greenhouse
effect creates a uniform, scorched temperature. |
|
Earth |
15 °C |
59 °F |
Solid surface. |
|
Mars |
-65 °C |
-85 °F |
Solid surface; thin atmosphere
causes large swings (-125 °C to 20 °C). |
|
Jupiter |
-110 °C |
-166 °F |
Measured at 1 bar pressure level (no
solid surface). |
|
Saturn |
-140 °C |
-220 °F |
Measured at 1 bar pressure level (no
solid surface). |
|
Uranus |
-195 °C |
-320 °F |
Gas of atmosphere transitions into a
thick, fluid interior without a clear boundary or solid ground. Measured at 1 bar pressure level; drops as
low as -224 °C (-371 °F) in the upper atmosphere. |
|
Neptune |
-200 °C |
-330 °F |
Measured at 1 bar pressure level (no
solid surface). |
Just looking at planet surface temperature and their
increasing distance from the sun it seems obvious why Earth is the only
non-hostile environment for humans. All
of the hype about “expanding human consciousness to the universe” or “a
humanitarian argument for making life multi-planetary”, or that it is “too
risky to put all of our eggs in one basket” – is just that. As far as preserving Earth goes – I can’t say
it any better than Carl Sagan:
“It has been said that astronomy is a humbling and
character-building experience. There is perhaps no better demonstration of the
folly of human conceits than this distant image of our tiny world. To me, it
underscores our responsibility to deal more kindly with one another, and to
preserve and cherish the pale blue dot, the only home we've ever known.”
— Carl Sagan, Pale Blue Dot, 1994
Be more like Carl Sagan and less like the legion of
politicians and entrepreneurs destroying the only home we will ever know.
George Dawson, MD, DFAPA
Supplementary 1.
Radiation Risk from Standard X-rays: I thought I would add an
explanatory paragraph on radiation exposure in space and dosing compared to
standard x-rays. Recall that x-rays are
photons and galactic cosmic ray (GCRs) are particles. It is calculated from the absorbed dose in Gy
(where 1 Gy = 1 J/kg). That absorbed
dose is multiplied by organ and tissue weighting factors to reflect the
potential for injury. For radiation in
space Linear Energy Transfer (LET) of high energy particles is used for the
exposure calculation (1). That equation
is:
H = D × Q ,
where D = (physical energy
deposition) absorbed dose in energy per unit mass.
Q = quality factor - continuous
function of the particle's linear energy transfer (LET), ranging from 1 for
low-LET radiation (photons, fast protons) up to ~30 for densely ionizing heavy
ions. There are 2 competing models for Q.
H = (risk relevant biological
dose) dose equivalent of biologically equivalent dose (mSv).
The important concept in looking at equivalent radiation doses
between photons (x-rays, gamma rays) and particles (GCRs) is that GCRs are not
directly measured and are estimates based on both the 2 models of the Q factor
and the particle composition of the radiation. The HZE particles that drive the
radiation dose in space for astronauts are elements 2 (Helium or He) to 26
(Iron or Fe).
In the simpler case on Earth, medical x-rays have been
studied. Several of those studies show a
higher risk of malignancy with more x-ray exposure. The table below gives the
effective dose and dose relative to background radiation (on Earth) for a
number of procedures. Longer procedures
like CT scans and fluoroscopy have higher radiation exposure. Compare to Mars Mission Radiation Exposure (3rd table above).
|
Modality / study |
Typical effective dose (mSv) |
Multiple of a chest X-ray /
background |
Cancer-risk context |
References |
|
Chest radiograph (PA) |
0.02 |
1× (baseline) |
Negligible; pediatric attributable risk <1% |
[2, 3] |
|
Panoramic/intraoral dental |
0.01 |
~0.5× |
Negligible |
[2, 4] |
|
Mammography |
0.4 |
~20× |
Very low |
[2, 4] |
|
Lumbar spine (3 views) |
1.5 |
~75× |
Low |
[2] |
|
CT head |
~2 |
~100×; ~2/3 of annual background |
Bone-marrow dose ~13.7 mGy; pediatric RR ~1.35 for hematologic cancer |
[1-3] |
|
CT chest |
7 (range 5–13) |
~350×; ~2 yr background |
Small individual stochastic risk |
[1-2, 5] |
|
CT abdomen/pelvis |
14 (range 10–17) |
~700× |
One of the higher routine CT doses |
[2, 5] |
|
CT pulmonary embolism protocol |
15 |
~750× |
Higher because multiphase |
[2] |
|
Multiphase / combined CAP CT |
~30–40 (cumulative) |
approaching detectable-risk threshold with repetition |
~1 in 100 lifetime cancer per 100 mSv (BEIR VII) |
[2, 5] |
|
Nuclear stress test (sestamibi 1-day) |
9.4 |
~470× |
Moderate |
[2] |
|
Nuclear stress test (thallium) |
40.7 |
~2,000× |
Among the highest routine studies |
[2] |
|
Diagnostic cardiac catheterization |
7 |
~350× |
Operator- and case-dependent |
[2] |
|
Coronary stent / PCI |
15 |
~750× |
Higher with complexity |
[2] |
|
Interventional/fluoroscopic procedures (range) |
5–70 (up to >250 for portography) |
highly variable |
Skin injury threshold at ~5 Gy air kerma triggers follow-up |
[1, 6] |
|
1. Mettler FA Jr, Huda W,
Yoshizumi TT, Mahesh M. Effective doses in radiology and diagnostic nuclear
medicine: a catalog. Radiology. 2008 Jul;248(1):254-63. doi:
10.1148/radiol.2481071451. PMID: 18566177. 2. Ford B, Dore M, Moullet P.
Diagnostic Imaging: Appropriate and Safe Use. Am Fam Physician. 2021 Jan
1;103(1):42-50. PMID: 33382559. 3. Smith-Bindman R, Alber SA,
Kwan ML, et al. Medical Imaging and Pediatric and Adolescent Hematologic
Cancer Risk. N Engl J Med. 2025 Oct 2;393(13):1269-1278. doi:
10.1056/NEJMoa2502098. Epub 2025 Sep 17. PMID: 40961449; PMCID: PMC12445590. 4. Ahmed NA. Typical effective
dose values from diagnostic and interventional radiology. Appl Radiat Isot.
2023 Feb;192:110611. doi: 10.1016/j.apradiso.2022.110611. Epub 2022 Dec 7.
Erratum in: Appl Radiat Isot. 2026 Jun;232:112543. doi: 10.1016/j.apradiso.2026.112543.
PMID: 36516635. 5. Smith-Bindman R, Moghadassi
M, Wilson N, Nelson et al. Radiation Doses in Consecutive CT Examinations
from Five University of California Medical Centers. Radiology. 2015
Oct;277(1):134-41. doi: 10.1148/radiol.2015142728. Epub 2015 May 19. PMID:
25988262; PMCID: PMC4613871. 6. Li X, Hirsch JA, Rehani MM,
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||||
The strongest recent human evidence comes from the 2025 NEJM
cohort of 3.7 million children (3), which found a linear dose-response for
hematologic cancer detectable below 50 mGy — a relative risk of ~1.8 at 15–20
mGy (roughly one to two head CTs) and ~3.6 at 50–100 mGy — estimating that
10.1% of hematologic cancers in the cohort were attributable to imaging
radiation.
It is important to keep in mind that all medical risks are
probabilistic and there are additional demographic factors like age, sex, and
cumulative exposure and that risk always needs to be balanced against the
potential benefit. As an example worldwide a million people each year undergo
cardiac ablations for arrhythmias despite the x-ray exposure and a significant
number of those people need a repeated procedure.
1: Naito, M., Kodaira, S. Considerations for practical dose equivalent assessment of space radiation and exposure risk reduction in deep space. Sci Rep 12, 13617 (2022). https://doi.org/10.1038/s41598-022-17079-1
2: Smith-Bindman R,
Chu PW, Azman Firdaus H, et al. Projected Lifetime Cancer Risks From Current
Computed Tomography Imaging. JAMA Intern Med. 2025;185(6):710–719.
doi:10.1001/jamainternmed.2025.0505
3: Smith-Bindman R,
Alber SA, Kwan ML, et al. Medical Imaging and Pediatric and Adolescent
Hematologic Cancer Risk. N Engl J Med. 2025 Oct 2;393(13):1269-1278. doi:
10.1056/NEJMoa2502098. Epub 2025 Sep 17. PMID: 40961449; PMCID: PMC12445590.
4: Baerlocher MO,
Detsky AS. Discussing Radiation Risks Associated With CT Scans With Patients.
JAMA. 2010;304(19):2170–2171. doi:10.1001/jama.2010.1591
Graphics Credit:
1: Planet Mars. By Sevinchalisherovna, CC BY-SA 4.0 https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-sa/4.0 Unaltered.
2: Comparison of the Mars and Earth atmospheres is from the European Space Agency ©ESA and it is used here per Common Cause license (see link for details) CC BY-SA 3.0 IGO It is unaltered and this is a non-commercial and not-for-profit site.
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