Monday, January 17, 2022

This Is How Civilization Ends...

I had that thought immediately after seeing the above graph on the CDC web site. Over a million new cases.  An all-time high by far.  At that point, the news had been heavy with discussions about the Omicron virus for about 3 weeks. The trail though Africa and Europe was described.  In the United States we had plenty of warning and plenty of time to adjust.  It wasn’t like that first peak in the fall and winter of 2020-2021.  Back then there were no vaccinations.  My wife an I finally got vaccinated in March of 2021 and then only by an extraordinary stroke of luck.  Before Omicron we were flush with vaccinations.  Two different retail pharmacy chains were scheduling appointments and they were free. When the booster came out that was also free and much easier to get. The overwhelming scientific evidence was that the immunizations were safe and effective.

The public health measures seemed less effective. That could be confirmed by a walk around Target or Walmart. At the absolute peak of mask wearing in Minnesota, my estimates were up to 30% of shoppers were masked. Half of those masks were loose fitting cloth masks and probably not very effective. Today, at the height of the Omicron spike 10% of the people in my coffee shop were masked and I was the only guy wearing an N95.  Despite an increasingly vocal group of aerosol scientists most people remain shockingly ignorant or willfully ignoring the airborne route of transmission. The most easily observed scenario is restaurant dining where the customers wear a mask to the table and then take it off to eat and talk for the next two hours. There is no magical protection from airborne virus in that scenario. Forget about the 6 feet safe distance rule at the start of the pandemic. Looking for restaurants that have improved their HVAC systems to improve airflow and air exchanges over time was also disappointing. So far in the Twin Cities Metro area I have found 1 restaurant. No restaurant or business as far as I know is posting their air exchanges per hour or carbon dioxide measurements to describe the potential risk of their environment. They are posting that they adhere to social distancing and all of the surfaces are wiped clean between diners.

Despite all of that inertia, the restaurants are packed.  Typically, shutdown occurs when a significant number of staff are ill with coronavirus and they cannot stay open. I dodged a bullet at Christmas just as infections were increasing. My wife and I were supposed to meet another couple at a restaurant. My suggestion to get take out and eat it at either of our homes was met with resistance. I was saved by a call from that restaurant that significant numbers of their staff were ill and they would be closing until things improved.   

The general cultural landscape has been even more grim. I follow all of the experts in the media on a regular basis – Drs. Fauci, Hotez, Jha, and Walensky.  On an average day they are awash in a sea of misinformation.  That sea contains the entrepreneurs who see the pandemic as a money-making scheme as well as the purely irrational who find that conspiracy theories about the virus, vaccine, and public health measures are easier to understand and believe than the science. Political opportunists are in the mix and as recently as today were suggesting that “white people” were being discriminated against and were less likely to get the vaccine as a result. The Florida Governor made this statement:

“We reject the biomedical security state that curtails liberty, ruins livelihoods and divides society.”

Biomedical security state? The politicization of this pandemic knows no bounds. It obscures both the science and goodwill toward the scientific and medical communities.  But it doesn’t stop there.  In some large health care organizations 10% of the workforce has been fired for not complying with workplace mandates on COVID-19 immunizations.  Some of these workers are physicians who should have been taught basic epidemiological concepts – the most basic being that vaccinations are a rare medical miracle that have saved the lives of tens of millions of people.  Disease have been eradicated, prevented, and the course of infectious diseases has been altered.  And even if you are not a physician, everyone has the experience of taking all of the mandatory vaccinations required to attend school.  Most of these vaccinations had a significantly worse side effect profile than the currently available COVID-19 vaccinations.

Apart from reducing rates of infection, hospitalization, and death these modern vaccinations also reduce the risk of chronicity. Chronic or “long COVID” symptoms might occur in as many as 70% of patients after the infection. Remission rates and rates of disability are still being determined at this time.  Given the risk/benefit considerations of the vaccinations it is difficult to see how any rational person would refuse it.  It is even more difficult to understand how a rational person would not take basic measures to protect themselves and their families from airborne virus or justify ignoring the pandemic on the basis of a completely implausible conspiracy theory. In some cases, the motivations are very clear.  Politicians would rather use various forms of rhetoric to attack the idea of a pandemic and what it takes to resolve it for political gain rather than taking positive steps recommended by experts. It is a standard political tactic.  That rhetoric has been advanced to extreme levels and to the point where scientists and their families are being threatened.  Today the suggestion that “white people” were being discriminated against struck me as white nationalist rhetoric.  It was viewed just as another “falsehood” in the media.  Certainly, blind partisan acceptance of these statements is not very likely to exhibit flexibility in thinking about the pandemic, the virus, or possible solutions.

The press has stepped in and commented on the process as a “mass delusion” or “mass psychosis” as if the use of psychiatric jargon by a journalist would add credibility to the criticism of many people thinking and acting irrationally. Many of them are agitated, visibly angry, and can become aggressive typically when confronted about pandemic precautions in schools and businesses.  Hardly a day goes by without seeing an airline passenger or town hall meeting participant screaming until they are red in the face and carted away by security. None of these people has a psychiatric disorder.  They can cool off somewhere, suppress their irrational thoughts and the associated anger, and get up and go to work the next morning.  During the run up to the 2020 Presidential election there was heated commentary about President Trump’s mental health and fitness for office. There was some debate in the psychiatric community if it was appropriate to discuss that issue based on Trump’s observed behavior rather than a psychiatric assessment. This essay looks at the other side of that debate. Why do so many people follow leaders who make repeatedly false statements that in some cases are viewed as potentially inciting people to do the wrong thing? And conversely – how do so many people accept the more obvious rational path and reject all of the paranoia and conspiracy theories?

There are of course numerous theories about how this comes about.  The theories generally depend on the same theories that have been used to describe normal development, psychopathology, and normal learning processes.  In some cases the theories have a philosophical basis – that seem to be fashionable these days. And despite many of these theorists incorporating a neurobiological model – very little explanation about how that is relevant.

The relevance is obvious to me starting with the relationship between emotion and cognition specifically decision making. In order for it to be obvious, the relationship between emotions and normal decision making needs a brief exploration. Human decision making typically occurs as an integrated process in the frontal cortex. I won’t digress into any subdivisions or tracks in this post. The key word here is integrated. That means the frontal cortex takes a large number of inputs and uses them to varying degrees in the ultimate decision. That includes a lot of memory input, specific types or learning, emotional input, and real time sensory and perceptual data.  The amount of input is large and much of it occurs at an unconscious level. How it occurs is largely unknown at this point but with our limiting inputs have been determined.  One of those inputs is emotion. We know for example from lesion studies that emotional input is absolutely critical for normal day to day decision making. Of the vast number of potential decisions we all have a subset that are associated with emotional valences that can affect our preferences. Without access to those valences decision making slows and grinds to a halt.

Restricting our consideration of the decision space to all of the possible decisions about the pandemic and how to proceed – all of the medical, scientific, personal, political, manipulative, and conspiracy theories the possibilities are very large. If we have 300 million decision makers and they all have unique conscious states and personal capacities for decision making the potential outcomes are large. It is also a more complex scenario than all of the typical explanations for pandemic denial.  Each one of our 300 million decision makers has unique experience affecting the emotional valences of their decisions. The overt decisions may seem to coalesce at some points but for many different reasons. For example, believing what a politician says despite the clear documentation that they are lying can occur as the result of identification with similar people in the past, identification with a general class attitude or ethos that it represents, or it simply could be activated by the angry emotion that politician effects. Those are just a few possibilities.

The pandemic vaccination vs. anti-pandemic antivaxx is by definition a binary polarized debate – the reality based on what we know about how the brain works it is far from that simple.  Even on what appears to be the rational side there is no Spock-like analysis.  The public health experts are all accessing emotion when making their decisions. Rational thought is reward-based learning and associated to one degree or another with a “Eureka” moment.    

The key question going forward is what can be done to address the degrees of freedom associated with the possible decisions of this brain process.  What can be done to improve the process and by improve, I mean assure that civilization survives the current and potentially more lethal pandemics. To that end, there are numerous cinematic depictions of apocalyptic pandemics. Based on the depictions prior to this pandemic they are probably fairly accurate. Once a lethal pandemic takes hold, the decision space for survival collapses as fewer and fewer decisions are possible. An intuitive writer or film maker knows that at some level.  Time to make it general knowledge.

 

George Dawson, MD, DFAPA

No comments:

Post a Comment