It was my day off yesterday but I have been looking at a “need
maintenance” light for the past four days. I had to leave the house for car
maintenance. Given the pandemic status this would be a whole new trip. Even though
Minnesota does not have a lot of cases at this time, they are increasing and
there is an identified COVID-19 case in a town 5 miles away and a neighbor four
houses away with direct exposure to coronavirus in the workplace. My secondary goal during this trip was to take a look at social distancing and the other
practical suggestions to contain the spread of this virus.
Beam Avenue is a busy thoroughfare that connects Highway 61
on the west and White Bear Avenue on the east. My Toyota dealer is on the west end of Beam Avenue and 1.5 miles away a popular shopping mall sits on the
corner of Beam Avenue and White Bear Avenue. St. Johns Hospital is about half way down and the photo was shot from the sidewalk. Average vehicle traffic in this
area is about 17 to 18,000 vehicles per day.
I don’t generally set up appointments for vehicle
maintenance. I wait until the light goes off and then I typically drive in and
wait. Even though the wait takes 1 to 2 hours, the accommodations for customers
at this dealership are excellent. A comfortable waiting area, free cookies, and
free coffee. This waiting area is generally very congested due to the high
levels of work done at this dealership. It was going to be a challenge to see
if social distancing was possible or not.
I pulled into the service area and was greeted by one of
the service managers. He took me over to his desk and we started going through
all the details. I told him I needed a new battery in my starter fob. He took
it from me, pried open, installed the new battery, blew the dust out of both
halves of the fob with his own breath, snapped it together, and handed it back
to me. We talked about the purpose of this visit specifically oil change and
tire rotation. He offered to sell me a new service plan but I told him I was
thinking of trading in my current RAV4 for a new one. He asked me what my
timeframe was and I told him:
“I want to see this coronavirus thing pans out.” He smiled at that.
After deciding the course of action he told me it might
take one to two hours and I headed into the customer waiting area. I have probably
seen more customers there at other times but it was packed, everyone was eating
cookies and drinking coffee, and there were few open seats. There are study
carrels along one wall. That is where I typically sit and do computer work while
I wait. I decided it was a bad idea because there is no expectation that these
surfaces would be sanitized. The same would be true of the padded and more
comfortable seating in the middle of the waiting area. Appropriate social
distancing was not evident and in fact I counted 16 people in the service area
that were probably within a 10 foot radius of me. I decided it was a good time for a
walk.
Beam Avenue is not the ultimate walking course. There are
numerous pedestrian crossings just to get to the main sidewalk on the north
side. Several large businesses have entrances across that sidewalk. It was an
opportunity to see how many motorists never stop or even slow down when making
a right-hand turn at a red light or stop sign. Costco motorists seemed more
prone to that maneuver. The problem with the walkway is the intensity of traffic
and the associated noise and exhaust fumes. That might explain why during the
entire 3 mile walk I did not encounter a single fellow pedestrian. The traffic
at 3 o’clock on Friday afternoon was as intense as I have ever seen it.
I got to the mall and walked through the main entrance. All
the entrances and exits to the mall had pneumatic sliding doors and that is
clearly a plus in terms of virus transmission. As I walked further into the
mall those benefits seem to diminish. I came across children who were swarming
all over free plastic playground equipment. I also saw kids jammed into moving
seats wearing some kind of virtual reality goggles that appeared to be
simulating a Star Wars battle. I did not inspect all of this equipment but hand
sanitizers were not apparent. The kids all looked like they were having fun -
it is probably hard to think about social distancing when you are a parent of
young children.
When I got to the food court I was surprised that the
tables had been thinned out. It looked like there was about a 60% reduction in
the total number. As a result there was roughly 10 to 12 feet between most of
the tables-the suggested social distancing interval. The other notable change
was that even with fewer tables, there was hardly anybody eating at the food
court. There was one long line of what appeared to be high school students who
had not been seated. There is also visible housekeeping staff with sanitation
equipment and they appear to be interested primarily in the food court area.
The men’s room was disappointing. With all the emphasis on
handwashing there should be an expectation that any facility will be adequate for
that task. In the men’s room, 40% of the soap dispensers and 60% of the faucets
were not working. One of the faucets was totally gone. There was a paper towel dispenser that was empty and two air hand dryers. I had time to discover
that I needed to go from sink to sink but if there was any crowding - I am sure
it would affect the number of people adequately washing their hands. I headed
out the door and back to the Toyota dealer.
When I got back - social distancing remained a problem. The
service manager met me in the cashier line and reviewed all of the billing. There
are two cashiers with six people in two lines and we were all about 1 foot
apart. Nobody was coughing or sneezing. I was able to pay and leave in about
five minutes.
On the way home I had to pick up some milk and bread and
stopped at one of the major grocery store chains in the Twin Cities. The
parking lot was packed. I decided to shop without a cart and avoid any cart contamination. There were hundreds of people in the
store many of them very old. The store was well-stocked and the only thing that
was missing was the toilet paper and paper toweling. A woman in front of me
laughed very loudly when she turned the corner and saw that there was about a
50-foot section of shelving completely empty where these paper items had been. I
grabbed the milk and bread and headed to the self-checkout line. Six people in
line again to get to the touchscreen checkout computer. I checked out got in my
car and used a liberal amount of hand sanitizer. I had also used outdoor gloves
to negotiate doorways at the car dealership.
On the final drive home, I was thinking about how social distancing was absent in most of the scenarios I encountered. Vehicle and foot traffic were heavy and there was plenty of congestion. What will it take to get people to stay home and out of public spaces? Some commentators have said that inconsistent messaging is a big part of it. Declaring a pandemic a political hoax one day an actual public health emergency the next day doesn’t work. Today I read three different conspiracy theories on COVID-19 as a bio weapon that was either deliberately used by the United States or China or inadvertently escaped the Chinese bioweapons lab. None of those theories appears to be consistent with what really happened. I was watching a celebrity news program and saw a caller say that the only time he took the pandemic seriously was when he learned that Tom Hanks and Rita Wilson had contracted the virus.
I started to think about why I take it seriously. I worked
on two different Avian Influenza Task Forces about 15 years ago. It was a
significant effort. One of the main concerns was surge suppression or preventing emergency departments and
other resources from being overwhelmed by people who thought they had the
disease. There is actually a program called Psychological First Aid where mental
health professionals train volunteers to counsel these people and direct them away
from emergency departments. I was a trainer for this course. In our meetings
there was always a vague discussion of what would actually happen in hospitals
if they were overwhelmed by patients with avian influenza. In some of those discussions we would see a PowerPoint slide of a pallet loaded with Tamiflu at some Air Force Base. We were reassured that in
the event of a local epidemic- that medication would be made available. The
specifics about negative pressure rooms, ventilators, workflow, and manpower
requirements were never really discussed. The current strategy for coronavirus
of slowing the infection rate by social distancing and quarantine was also not
discussed. At some point it was apparent to me that if avian influenza pandemic
occurred, we would be making it up as we went along. I had studied several of
these epidemics and had concerns about surge suppression especially
in a highly infectious situation.
There appear to be some common errors that are made along
the way when considering that pandemics are not only possible but likely. The
first one is analyzing the situation according to a particular political bias.
This is a very common mistake these days even though it clearly doesn’t work.
Contradictory information in addition to those political biases amplifies the
problem. Independent of political bias, it takes the ability to imagine that a
pandemic is possible. That approach can be historical, biological, medical or
mathematical. Any one of those disciplines can provide the necessary knowledge
base. There are concerns today that in the era of social media dynamics – every
one is an expert at the rhetorical level. The signal of real expertise is lost
in the noise of grabbing for celebrity and the associated benefits. Self-selection
leads to all of the adherents of a common belief isolating themselves in one
little area on the Internet. That leads to the expected cognitive biases but
also the illusion that life can go on as a member of an isolated group with no
role in greater society. Pandemics directly
confront that denial.
I did see some bright spots on Beam Avenue today, but not
many. Vehicle and foot traffic is heavy
and social isolation is a problem in high congestion areas. If people are expected
to wash their hands frequently – washrooms need frequent attention and repair. The
focus on cancellation of mass sporting and entertainment events is useful, but day
to day sources of possible contamination need attention – especially when there
are clearly identified cases and exposures in the area.
People need to stay home unless travelling to congested areas is absolutely necessary. It is the best way to prevent the severe measures being taken in some countries right now and get through this.
People need to stay home unless travelling to congested areas is absolutely necessary. It is the best way to prevent the severe measures being taken in some countries right now and get through this.
George Dawson, MD, DFAPA