Worst Mass Shooting in US History

I got up Sunday morning and the CNN headlines stated: "50 dead, 53 injured.....".  What appears to have been a single shooter entered an Orlando nightclub last night  at about 2AM and shot 92 people with an assault rifle.  I saw Dr. Michael Cheatham  of Orlando Regional Medical Center say that a mass casualty incident was declared and an additional 6 trauma surgeons and a pediatric trauma surgeon were brought in.  The FBI is investigating it as an act of terror or a hate crime.  The shooter was a 29 year old man who had been investigated by the FBI for possible ties to Islamic extremism.  He had been working as a security guard for a company who provides services to the federal government.  He was licensed to purchase firearms.  He purchased two firearms shortly before the shooting - a Sig Sauer MCX Carbine 0.223 cal on June 4 and a Glock 19  9mm pistol on June 9 from the same gun shop.  Some reports suggest he was also carrying a Walther P22 .22LR pistol, purchase date unknown.  Prior to this incident the worst mass shooting incident was the Virginia Tech incident in 2007 that killed 32 people.  

At the time of the attack the shooter called 911 and pledged allegiance to ISIS and mentioned the Boston bombers.  President Obama came on the networks at 2PM and referred to the incident:  "This was an act of terror or hate."  He pointed out that this was an attack on all Americans and he encouraged solidarity.  In an earlier commentary (posted above) he discussed solutions.  He used the example of highway traffic fatalities and how they were approached from a scientific and public health standpoint.  Vehicle safety improved.  Driver behaviors especially driving while intoxicated was confronted.  Although he did not mention it, the drinking age in the United States was increased to age 21 largely by political leverage using federal highway money granted to individual states.  He pointed out that these same public health measures cannot be used in the case of firearm violence because Congress has blocked research on firearm deaths and violence. He discussed a situation that he had just encountered, where people being tracked by the FBI for frequenting ISIL web sites could be put on the no-fly list but they could not be prohibited from purchasing firearms. That legislation is blocked by a gun lobby with a primary thesis that some members of the government want to take away Second Amendment rights and firearms from law-abiding citizens.   The President points out that nothing could be further from the truth and cited the fact that more firearms have been sold during his administration that practically any other time of the Republic.  I think the manufacturing statistics might back up that claim at least based on a chart I created during the first half of his administration.  Further information corroborating this statement is available at the document Firearms Commerce in the United States 2015 on the ATF website.  There is plenty of data there to corroborate both the President's remarks and the potential financial conflict of interest of the firearms lobby.  I am sure that the gun advocates will be the first to say they deserve credit for gun commerce rather than the President.  My speculation is that they would deflect the conflict of issue by either wrapping themselves in the Second Amendment or as advocates for all of the law-abiding gun owners.

I think that most physicians agree with a public health approach to gun violence and would like to see more data and strategies.  The existing data shows that gun availability is the single largest determinant when it comes to firearm deaths either due to suicide or homicide.  It accounts for the greatest correlation with adverse outcomes from gun violence.  By comparison psychiatric diagnosis does not.

The President's comments on the further political aspects of gun control legislation in the US especially people being investigated by the FBI, like the perpetrator was on two occasions cannot be prohibited from obtaining firearms.  That speaks directly to the pro-gun argument that all we have to do is focus on existing laws and get the guns out of the hands of the bad guys.  This law potentially puts guns directly into the hands of the bad guys and nothing is being done about it.  The Obama video was posted 10 days prior to the Orlando attack.

I won't belabor the points I have already made in a series of posts on this blog.  We are still seeing the same microanalysis and political opportunism that has become a routine part of mass shootings.  We are still seeing the lack of solutions like we have seen in the past.  The way it looks I can continue to post on the issue on out into the future it will probably be a problem long after I am gone.  I heard a gun advocate on public radio this morning and what he said after this incident was not only depressing and disingenuous, but it typifies a rigid illogical stance that no place in science, medicine, or the 21st century.  It illustrates why the gun lobby has Congress enact laws to stifle funding for epidemiological work on gun mortality and morbidity.   I suppose at this point it is just a question of when we hit the tipping point.  When will the majority of Americans start to reject this illogical philosophy?

If the gun advocates hit the street with this hard line attitude after the scope of a mass shooting like we witnessed in Orlando - I shudder to think of what the eventual human cost is going to be.




George Dawson, MD, DFAPA




Attribution:

Embedded video per PBS and the instruction on their site.  Original video was from June 2, 2016

Assault rifles, high capacity magazines, background checks and reverting to form

That is what it is coming down to according to the talking heads on the Sunday morning TV circuit this week.  Both the NRA and several politicians agree that there are not enough votes for an assault weapons ban.  There may be enough votes for a high capacity magazine ban but both sides acknowledge that these clips are inexpensive and there are already a lot of them out there.  The background checks issue is also debatable.  The NRA and the pro-gun factions are talking a lot about mental illness and needing to have a mechanism to prevent people with mental illnesses from getting guns.  There is minimal discussion of improved mental health services.  On CNN Sunday  morning there was acknowledgement that during tough budgetary times the line items supporting mental health treatment are the first to go.

So basically despite all of the hype about how the Sandy Hook incident was going to energize politicians to actually solve a problem – they appear to be rapidly reverting to form and not solving anything.  The NRA President seemed confident that nothing would happen (the NRA opposes any assault weapons ban or high capacity magazine ban), but cautioned that the President has a lot of political capital and might be able to influence the high capacity magazines.

I wanted to file this post tonight before the final recommendations of the Vice President because I think that there have been two recent articles in the medical literature that are very relevant. At the legislative level Jerome Kassirer, MD has a recent article in Archives of Internal Medicine. Dr. Kassirer is a former editor of the New England Journal of Medicine and I corresponded with him on this issue nearly 30 years ago.  He clearly has not lost interest over the years and brings several concepts into focus in his editorial. The first concerns the fundamentals of screening and how any effort to identify potential shooters would result in the false positives greatly outnumbering the true positives and how that renders screening impractical.  His primary focus has to do with countering political initiatives.  As an example the National Center for Injury Prevention and Control at the CDC is currently prevented from studying gun related injuries.  He advocates for countering that.  He advocates for a comprehensive analysis of gun ownership.  He also advocates for resistance to any laws that restrict physicians being able to talk about firearms with their patients. He wants to see universal background checks from gun purchases, gun safety devices including coded weapons, and restrictions on large capacity magazines and sales of large amounts of ammunition. His article refers to firearms as "Weapons of Mass Destruction".  Small arms and light weapons are in fact a major global problem.  This Federation of American Scientists primer highlights the issue and the fact that there have been over 1 million deaths due to small arms in the past decade. Some advocacy organizations estimate that as many as 250,000 people per year are killed by small arms fire worldwide.

The second very important article comes from the Journal of the American Medical Association. The authors of this article emphasize the public health approach to curbing gun violence. This is a very important concept that people have a difficult time grasping. Whenever I bring up the issue of psychiatrists being involved at the level of primary and secondary prevention most people distill that down to whether or not psychiatrists can predict violence.  A public health approach to violence prevention is much more comprehensive and multidimensional.  The authors give several good examples in this paper including modifying sociocultural norms.  They use the example of tobacco being media symbol of “modernity, autonomy, power, and sexuality" and how that was changed.  They suggest an analogous campaign to equate gun violence with weakness, irrationality, and cowardice. The article has a table that has 18 evidence-based public health interventions that have been successful in other areas that could be applied to gun violence.  This is actually the preferred strategy that I have been advocating for the past decade and the authors of this article state it very eloquently.

At this point in time it will be interesting to see if the Vice President's recommendations include any of the interventions suggested by these two articles or the recommendations from the APA.

George Dawson, MD, DFAPA

1: Kassirer JP. Weapons of Mass Destruction. Arch Intern Med. 2012 Dec 21:1-2.  doi: 10.1001/jamainternmed.2013.4026. [Epub ahead of print] PubMed PMID: 23262523.

2.  APA Recommendations to the Biden Task Force

3.  Mozaffarian D, Hemenway D, Ludwig DS. Curbing Gun Violence: Lessons From Public Health Successes. JAMA. 2013 Jan 7:1-2. doi: 10.1001/jama.2013.38. [Epub ahead of print] PubMed PMID: 23295618.