Irrational American Gun Landscape Gets Worse….

The Supreme Court voted 6-3 to lift the ban on bump stocks yesterday (on June 14, 2024). The bump stock is a device that allows a shooter to depress the trigger of a semiautomatic rifle once.  After the initial firing the recoil energy of the firearm is used to bring the trigger back against the trigger finger for repeated firing without a subsequent trigger pull.  The result is a very high rate of fire with various quotes of 800 rounds per minute.  The limiting factor is rounds in the magazine and a standard magazine is 30 rounds with some states having lower limits or no limits.  

The majority decision was done by the Republican appointed justices (Roberts, Alito, Gorsuch, Kavanaugh, and Barrett), who used a series of rationalizations to show that in their opinion the bump stock does not convert a semiautomatic weapon to a machine gun as defined by the National Firearms Act of 1934.  Note that the majority opinion uses graphics (Figures 1-6) from the Firearms Policy Foundation - an organization that fights gun control laws (see reference 2 and their web site).  The dissenting opinion by Justice Sotomayor in the final few pages points out the inconsistencies in the majority opinion.  

Both court opinions include the precipitant for the bump stock ban – a 2017 Las Vegas shooting where the perpetrator was able to fire over 1,058 rounds from a hotel room into a crowd at a music festival killing 60 people and wounding 413.  An additional 454 people were injured in the ensuing panic. The gunfire occurred from 10:05 to 10:15 PM.  It is the deadliest mass shooting in the country that holds the record for mass shootings.  From the perspective of bump stocks, the Las Vegas shooter used 14 AR-15 (.223 cal) semiautomatic rifles and 8 AR-10 (.308 cal) semiautomatic rifles.  All of the AR-15s were fitted with bump stocks and 100 round magazines.  None of the AR-10s were fitted with bump stocks and 5 of 8 had 25 round magazines.  The remaining three AR-10s had no magazines. The AR-15s had a potential capacity of  1400 rounds that could have been discharged with a bump stock. The relevant factors from this list is that magazine capacity rather than firing rate is the major limiting factor in the total number of rounds that can be discharged and the shooter overcame that limitation by using more firearms with bump stocks. Only 15 states ban or restrict large capacity magazines.

There are various opinions in the media about how a bump stock ban originated in the Trump administration. The politics is interesting because the precipitating event was so egregious that the National Rifle Association supported restrictions on bump stocks.  I can find no action by the Trump administration other than encouraging the Bureau of Alcohol, Tobacco, and Firearms (ATF) to consider rule changes and in fact this report suggests there was a memo circulated with the usual “guns don’t kill people” message.  The Supreme Court refers to the ATF rule changes but also makes one reference to Trump.  Unless I missed something it seems clear that he did very little on the issue.

At the end of the day – we have a typical party line vote supporting gun extremism.  I don’t care who you are – the only reason you need a bump stock is to kill large numbers of people.  A bump stock is not useful for hunting or target shooting.  It converts a weapon that is already a military weapon (semi-automatic rifle) to what is essentially a fully automatic rifle. Justice Sotomayor’s opinion also includes the original reason for the machine gun ban and that was to keep these weapons out of the hands of gangsters.  Two of the typical gun extremist arguments against even minimal forms of gun control are:  “We already have enough gun laws on the books and they are not enforced” and “If we have more gun control laws only the criminals will have guns.”  They make these arguments while continuing to deregulate guns, make gun regulations harder to enforce, and make guns even more widely accessible either by Republican legislators or judges.

A second development on firearms was a recently released report by the CDC on the accessibility of firearms by children.  This is a timely study because of the April 2024 Michigan court case against a couple whose son shot and killed 4 students at his high school.  In that case the couple was found guilty of involuntary manslaughter and sentenced to 10 years in prison because their son used an unsecure handgun and they did not attend to behavior suggesting he could become violent. At the time of the shooting Michigan did not have a statute about securing firearms at home and that law was passed during the first prosecution of the parents. It was widely hailed as a warning to parents about securing firearms at home.

The CDC report was based on a Behavioral Risk Factor Surveillance System module administered in 8 states (AK, CA, MN NV, NM, NC, OH, and OK)  in 2021–2022.  The survey was administered by land line telephone calls. The nonresponse rate ranged from 3.5% to 12.8% by state.  The prevalence of firearms kept “in or around the home” was 18.4% (CA) to 50.6% (AK).  The general figure from Gallup is in the high 40%.  In 19.5% (MN) to 43.8% (NC) the firearm was stored loaded. Half of those reporting storing a loaded firearm said it was unlocked.  25.2% (OH) to 41.4% (AK) of those reporting storing an unlocked loaded firearm also reported children less than the age of 17 in the home.  For adults 65 years of age or older 58.5% (NM) to 72.5% (OK) of those with firearms had them stored unlocked.  The authors list the usual limitations of telephone self-report surveys but do not comment on cultural or political factors like the belief of some gun owners that the government is coming for their guns.  

The authors conclude that unlocked firearms may place children and other vulnerable populations at risk.  There is a higher suicide risk in the elderly.  It also illustrates how common the scenario is that led to the conviction of the parents for their son being a mass shooter. A secondary consideration of those convictions was a warning to parents that firearms at home need to be secured to prevent them from similar risks. As I commented at the time, that is a very inefficient approach to a problem that could be addressed at the population wide level. It is in effect, one political party putting parents at risk to continue saturating the population with firearms. And now we know it may be  about four in ten parents who store unlocked, loaded firearms, with children in the home.

To me, mass shootings are a function of:

- mass availability of high-capacity and rapid-fire firearms - both rifles and handguns

- gun extremism translated into effects at every level

- cultural effects - the disgruntled employee/student/etc as mass shooter has been an American meme for 50 years...

The Republican Party and their judicial appointees essentially control two of those three variables.  They are a party with no good ideas but they know how to get votes by stimulating excessive emotion around issues like firearms and abortion.  Their current approach to firearms is to place large part of the population at chronic risk with an arbitrary interpretation of the Second Amendment that they think that they can use to get votes. The basis for their gun extremist view, including the current Supreme Court decision is based on false premises rather than rational thought or legal precedent.  Americans generally don’t expect much from political parties and now they can expect the same from a highly partisan Supreme Court.    

George Dawson, MD, DFAPA

 

Supplementary:

I frequently talk about gun extremism on this blog and decided to attach a checklist of what I consider gun extremism to be.  Basically it is a marked divergence with common sense gun laws from the 1970s and earlier (see Tombstone ordinance from 1881). From a political standpoint it is clearly a political maneuver to excite and agitate people and get them to vote for a particular political party.  Like all of the so-called hot button issues it is an exercise in rhetoric and conspiracy theories that has unfortunately led to historic levels of gun violence in the US when compared with high income and low and medium income countries around the world.    

 

Gun extremism checklist:

☐  Advance “stand your ground” and “castle doctrine” laws.

☐  Eliminate bans on handguns

☐  Eliminate bans on assault weapons

☐  Minimize the characterization of “assault weapons” or military style weapons because they are not fully automatic weapons

☐  Eliminate bans on large capacity magazines

☐  Eliminate waiting periods

☐  Eliminate bans on public carry of guns

☐  Eliminate the need for permits to purchase handguns and/or carry them openly or as concealed weapons

☐  Eliminate gun-free locations (ie. places of worship, public transportation, healthcare facilities, public buildings)

☐  Eliminate bans on self-manufacturing of firearms

☐  Eliminate laws on age limits to firearm purchase and possession

☐  Eliminate laws on age limits for handgun and ammunition purchase

☐  Eliminate bans on gun accessories like bump stocks and pistol grip extensions

☐  Eliminate laws on “cannot issue” firearms to certain purchasers

☐  Eliminate gun purchase bans for perpetrators of domestic violence

☐  Eliminate gun purchase bans for convicted felons

References:

1:  Friar NW, Merrill-Francis M, Parker EM, Siordia C, Simon TR. Firearm Storage Behaviors — Behavioral Risk Factor Surveillance System, Eight States, 2021–2022. MMWR Morb Mortal Wkly Rep 2024;73:523–528. DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.15585/mmwr.mm7323a1

2:  Lithwick D, Stern MJ. The Group Helping the Supreme Court Rewrite America’s Gun Laws Is Worse Than the NRA.  Slate June 15, 2024.  https://slate.com/news-and-politics/2024/06/supreme-court-nra-gun-laws-bump-stocks.html

3:  McClellan C, Tekin E. Stand your ground laws, homicides, and injuries. Journal of human resources. 2017 Jul 1;52(3):621-53.

4:  Rosenthal L. The limits of Second Amendment originalism and the constitutional case for gun control. Wash. UL Rev.. 2014;92:1187.

5:  Rowh A, Zwald M, Fowler K, Jack S, Siordia C, Walters J. Emergency Medical Services Encounters for Firearm Injuries — 858 Counties, United States, January 2019–September 2023. MMWR Morb Mortal Wkly Rep 2024;73:551–557. DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.15585/mmwr.mm7324a3

6:  Andrade EG, Hoofnagle MH, Kaufman E, Seamon MJ, Pah AR, Morrison CN. Firearm laws and illegal firearm flow between US states. J Trauma Acute Care Surg. 2020 Jun;88(6):752-759. doi: 10.1097/TA.0000000000002642. PMID: 32102044; PMCID: PMC7799862.

"States with stricter firearm legislation are negatively impacted by states with weaker regulations, as crime guns flow from out-of-state."

 

Graphics Credit:

From Wikimedia Commons per the posted Creative Commons licensing agreement. Click on the graphic for all details including author, color coding, and specific CC license.

SCOTUS decision irrelevant for health care reform

The decision by the Supreme Court on June 28 regarding the Patient Protection and Affordable Care Act has generated a lot of speculation about the implications for health care reform, the politics of the Supreme Court, the health of Supreme Court justices, and the impact on two party politics. Very few people seem really focused on the issue of health care reform. Even the most positive spin on this decision misses the mark. This article by Brooks that seems to center on the ideology of the Court and how the decision is healing is illustrative with the following quote:

"People in both camps seem to agree: We’ve had a big argument about health care over the past several years, yet we haven’t tackled the big issues. We haven’t tackled the end-of-life issues. We haven’t fixed the medical malpractice system. We are only beginning to correct the antiquated administrative systems."

And:

"... we haven’t addressed the structural perversities that are driving the health care system to bankruptcy. ... American health care is still distorted by the fee-for-service system that rewards quantity over quality and creates a gigantic incentive for inefficiency and waste."

The observations like essentially all observations about the ACA ignore the basic fact that this IS managed care and in fact - managed care on steroids. Managed care has proven time and time again to not contain costs and introduce administrative inefficiency in over two decades of experience. Whether or not the Supreme Court allows it to go forward or it is politically defeated in the future is peripheral to the fact that managed care has not worked as a device to contain health care inflation and it certainly does not provide either quality care or innovation. It can make money for stockholders and CEOs. In fact, in an up or down economy I can't think of a better recipe for making money than being able to deny health care benefits to a group of health care plan subscribers or deny or reduce reimbursement to physicians.

The structural perversity in the system is that in the overwhelming number of cases, personal health care decisions are no longer made between a patient and a physician. Contrary to managed care hype, their decisions are not necessarily based on any legitimate evidence. They are based on what is good for business and in this case we don't have a business that needs to build a better product. We have a business that has to ration access to a service.

Until that is recognized - health care reform is basically continuously rearranging ways to shift money from the people providing the care and the people paying for care to business entities that are "managing" the care.

The outcome is as predictable as where the managed care systems have gotten us to at this point.

George Dawson, MD, DFAPA

Health Care Complexity, Politicians, and Judges

There is so much wrong with the Affordable Care Act it is difficult to know where to start. According to a recent article in JAMA, I learned that Accountable Care Organizations (ACOs) are charged with improving the quality of care for Medicare patients at less cost. Any psychiatrist in the country who has witnessed the decimation of mental health care justified by that same rhetoric should be skeptical. 

So far the government has been again engaged in a highly coordinated effort to get the ACO initiative up and running. On October 20, 2011 the final rules for ACOs were released and on that same day the Federal Trade Commission and Department of Justice provided guidelines to address the antitrust issues of ACOs.  The JAMA article discusses five major issues related to the creation of ACO's many of which are unrealistic. As an example the antitrust guidelines suggest that ACOs that have a less than 30% market share are "highly unlikely to raise antitrust concerns".  In that landscape, the government expects that ACO's will develop and use quality measures, avoid exclusive relationships with hospitals and specialists, avoid cost shifting via the leverage of large physician groups to private payers, and be monitored to avoid gaming the risk-adjustment scheme. All of these dimensions are highly problematic.

The most problematic aspect of the Affordable Care Act is the same problem that every major piece of legislation in the United States has and that is that nobody reads it. I have seen quotes on how large the actual bill is ranging from 1000 pages to 2700 pages.  I first became aware of the fact that hardly anyone in Congress reads large bills in 2003. At that time I was following the progress of HR 1 (The Medicare Prescription Drug Bill).  I was watching C-SPAN and Sen. Harkin commented that the 1000 page bill was delivered to members of Congress on Thursday morning so that they could debate it on the weekend and vote on Monday morning. He was the first of many senators to acknowledge the fact that nobody would ever read the bill.

At the time I thought that disclosure was astounding. Here we have members of Congress whose full-time job is to design legislation and they are not actually reading and debating a bill that regulates a huge part of the economy and most people's healthcare. I won't even go into the fact that the pharmaceutical lobby was so satisfied with the final result that most of them left town on Friday.

The Affordable Care Act provides us with a new insight into how our government operates. In this case the constitutionality of the bill is also being debated and that was presented to the Supreme Court about two weeks ago. In the Wall Street Journal article it is official that Supreme Court justices are no more likely to read the bill than members of Congress. Justice Scalia is quoted: "You really want us to go through these 2,700 pages? And do you really expect the court to do that? Or do you expect us to give this function to our law clerks?"  We have a check and balance system set up where the check and balance is as defective as the original process.

The overall process here illustrates why it was doomed from the start. The Affordable Care Act is a highly experimental piece of legislation at best. In order for it to function as advertised many unlikely events will need to occur. That would seem obvious to any intelligent person reading the bill but as we have determined there are no members of Congress and no justices in the Supreme Court that will actually do that.

George Dawson, MD, DFAPA

Wall Street Journal. "Complexity is Bad for Your Health" April 8, 2012.

Dawson G.  Medicare Drug Bill #1,  #2,  #3  Three real time posts on my observations on the Medicare Prescription Drug Bill in 2003.

Schleffer RM, Shortell SM, Wilensky GR.  Accountable Care Organizations and Antitrust: Restructuring the Health Care Market.  JAMA. 2012;307(14):1493-1494.