Gunfire In the Streets

 

True crime television is very big in the United States right now.  It is well produced and, in most cases, more engaging than typical fictional crime dramas.  Much of it shows real time police work with body cam and camera crew footage.  It gives a generally good presentation of police officers and detectives including demands of the job and their disclosure of the emotional toll and empathy for crime victims.  A cross section of police departments are sampled and they represent themselves very well.  I have been consistently impressed with their degree of professionalism and approaches to solving crimes. 

The striking part of these videos is the level of violence on the streets of the US and what the police have to contend with.  There seems to be a pattern of reactivity that many people have that leads them to try to evade the police or physically resist their efforts to detain them at all costs.  These aggressive confrontations often occur for trivial reasons.  A common example is a routine traffic stop that turns into a high-speed chase and multiple collisions or a single high impact crash.  The person apprehended has suddenly gone from a misdemeanor crime or traffic ticket to multiple felonies and jail time. 

Nowhere is the escalation more evident than firearm related crimes. I have seen many of these situations where the first action taken by the offender is to open fire on the police.  Open the car door and start shooting.  Pull off the covers in bed and come out shooting.  Wrestle with two officers in close proximity to your girlfriend, get loose, grab a gun, and start shooting. Hole up in your house or apartment and when the police show up start shooting through the windows and walls.  I saw one episode where 96 rounds from an assault rifle were fired though the apartment walls at police officers on a stairway (they did not fire a single shot).  And all of that gunfire took less than a couple of minutes.

Any reader of this blog knows that I support reasonable gun laws, abhor the current trend to maximize the number of guns on the street, and see easy access to guns as a major public health problem.  I also dispel the conventional political wisdom on guns as only being problems in the hands of the mentally ill or people taking antidepressants.  Gun violence in this country is directly proportional to high gun density and lax gun laws.  True crime TV quickly reveals that the primary equation for gunfire on the streets is an angry young man with access to firearms.  I have seen about a hundred of them interviewed on these shows. Most have no clear explanation for what happened.  They uniformly regret that it did happen – mostly because the consequences they are facing. And nothing would have happened if there was no easy access to handguns.  What would have been a fistfight became a gunfight with somebody dead and somebody in prison for the rest of their lives.

Although, the sampling for the shows is undoubtedly biased toward the sensational – I decided to take a look at what has been researched and written about in terms of gunfire on American streets.  For context I have posted the tree stump from outside the Spotsylvania Court house.  At least it was in that spot when it was sawed off by gunfire during a battle in the Civil War in 1864.  It was subsequently sent to the Smithsonian where it is displayed today.  For scale, historians estimate that during the three-day Battle of Gettysburg – 6 - 7 million rounds were fired from small arms and 50,000 artillery shells were fired from 630 cannons.  The combined weight of the bullets, shells, and gunpowder was about 569 tons.  That is a lot of gunfire considering the standard military rifle of the day was a single shot musket that fired a Minié ball. 

One of the main questions I thought about was how much gunfire exists on American streets today with much more liberal gun laws and firearms with high-capacity magazines.  How would a typical day on American streets compare with the Civil War figure?  Globally we know that Americans purchase about 15.5 -22.7M firearms (rifles, shotguns, handguns) per year over the past 5 years. According to a 2017 estimate from Small Arms Survey, US citizens held 393.3M legal and illicit firearms or about 120.5 firearms for every 100 citizens.  The next closest country was Yemen with 52.8 per 100 citizens.  No other high-income countries had more than 40 firearms per 100 citizens.  

Incredibly the government is prohibited by law from collecting data and statistics on ammunition purchases so it is typically estimated from financial reports.  According to those estimates, Americans purchase about 10-12B bullets per year. That is 1600 times the number of rounds fired in the bloodiest battle of the Civil War.  For a weight comparison, the metal projectiles from 10B 9mm rounds would weigh 82 Tons, the full cartridges 132 Tons.  Of course, within that number there are people who may fire thousands of rounds at a gun range and some people who may not fire a single round every year.  Some rounds will be fired from illegal firearms. Some rounds will be fired during hunting.  Is there any way to estimate how many gunshots may be a direct danger to the public?

There are several sources of information.  Public health statistics offer indirect data on the end results.   There are about 132 firearm related deaths per day.  40% are homicides and 57% suicides.  The remaining gun deaths are from accidental deaths, police shootings, and undetermined gun deaths.  Beyond that another 200 people are struck by gunfire each day. A total of 320 people per day are struck by gunfire in the US and killed or wounded.  For comparison during Vietnam War (1965–1973), an average of approximately 20 American soldiers were killed and 53 were wounded every day.

It is difficult to impossible to find valid estimate of all gunfire in the US on any given day.  Several sources extrapolate from 30M recreational shooters and 10M hunters hunting and shooting at target ranges every day.  That us typically in the range of millions of rounds fired each day.  Using the most conservative figure for ammunition purchased, that figure might be as high as 27M rounds per day across all settings (gun ranges, hunting, fatal and non-fatal shooting).  Acoustic detectors of gunfire are deployed in only 100 cities in the US. Some files of gunfire detection are publicly available but as difficult to read CSV files.  There is some controversy about whether these systems lead to more traffic stops in minority areas and I cannot locate any national estimates from these devices.  Two studies have documented that about 88% of acoustic detected gunshots were unreported to the 911 systems.   Some authors have also included celebratory gunfire as another source of gunfire on the streets.

As a physician interested in public health and reducing gun deaths – the only way any of this makes sense is political interference.  Gun extremism is a problem in this country.  It has been a progressive political force for the past 40 years.  It is the most likely reason for a lack of tangible data on total rounds of ammunition sold per year in this country or even more basic information about total gunfire occurring at all crime scenes in the US every year.  At every crime scene, all of the expended shell casings are marked, numbered and photographed by location.  Collecting and reporting that data to a central location would be an easy job in this era of information, even if it would be an underestimate (not all firearms eject expended cartridges). 

There is only access to the end result – gun deaths and injuries.  The politics is such that we have become desensitized to it – even though the rate of gun violence in the US is higher than the casualty rate in the Vietnam War.  That was a war that was protested as unnecessary, but nobody is protesting the unnecessary gun violence in this country.  It is being sold at the highest levels as the price we all must pay for the hallowed Second Amendment.  

If you watch true crime TV like I do – pay attention to the senseless gun violence. Pay attention to how much gunfire occurs and the setting.  Pay attention to what the veteran police officers say about it.  Most of those shows do a good job of showing the impact it has on families and the police officers. 

And ask yourself why we can’t do better.   

 

George Dawson, MD, DFAPA

 Image Credit:

This is an image of a tree stump that resulted when the tree was sawed off by small arms fire during a Civil War battle.  The details of that battle are from where it resides in the Smithsonian Institute.  

"Until May 12, 1864, this shattered stump was a large oak tree in a rolling meadow just outside Spotsylvania Court House, Virginia. That morning, 1,200 entrenched Confederates, the front line of General Robert E. Lee's Army of Northern Virginia, awaited the assault of 5,000 Union troops from the Second Corps of the Army of the Potomac. Twenty hours later, the once-peaceful meadow had acquired a new name, the Bloody Angle. The same fury of rifle bullets that cut down 2,000 combatants tore away all but twenty-two inches of the tree's trunk. Several of the conical minie balls (bullets) are still deeply embedded in the wood. Unusual objects of war, such as this tree stump, come to symbolize the horror and heroism of a great battle. Originally presented to the U.S. Army's Ordnance Museum by Brevet Major General Nelson A. Miles, the stump was transferred to the Smithsonian in 1888."

 

References:

1:  Carr J, Doleac JL. The geography, incidence, and underreporting of gun violence: new evidence using ShotSpotter data. Incidence, and Underreporting of Gun Violence: New Evidence Using Shotspotter Data (April 26, 2016). 2016 Apr 26.

2:  Hansen JH, Boril H. Gunshot detection systems: Methods, challenges, and can they be trusted?. InAudio Engineering Society Convention 151 2021 Oct 13. Audio Engineering Society.

3:  Kaufman EJ, Wiebe DJ, Xiong RA, Morrison CN, Seamon MJ, Delgado MK. Epidemiologic Trends in Fatal and Nonfatal Firearm Injuries in the US, 2009-2017. JAMA Intern Med. 2021;181(2):237–244. doi:10.1001/jamainternmed.2020.6696

2009–2017: ~120,232 firearm injuries/year, or 329 every day — comprising 34,538 deaths (~95/day) and 85,694 ED visits for nonfatal injury (~235/day)

4:  Kaufman EJ, Song J, Xiong R, Seamon MJ, Delgado MK. Fatal and Nonfatal Firearm Injury Rates by Race and Ethnicity in the United States, 2019 to 2020. Ann Intern Med. 2024 Sep;177(9):1157-1169. doi: 10.7326/M23-2251. Epub 2024 Jul 30. PMID: 39074371.

2019–2020: the burden rose to an average of 1 firearm injury every 4 minutes and 1 firearm death every 12 minutes — ~252,376 total injuries with 84,908 deaths over the two years (~346 injuries and ~116 deaths per day).

A key public-health caveat is that these figures capture people who are shot and wounded or killed, not all rounds fired — there is no comprehensive national surveillance system that counts total gunfire or nonfatal, uninjured shooting incidents; nonfatal shootings and firearm uses "far outweigh" homicides and suicide deaths

5:  Koper CS, Baas G, Taylor BG, Liu W, Sheridan-Johnson J. Validating open-source data on fatal police shootings against self-reports from a national sample of police agencies. Inj Epidemiol. 2025 Oct 21;12(1):68. doi: 10.1186/s40621-025-00625-6. PMID: 41121442; PMCID: PMC12538985.