Showing posts with label political rhetoric. Show all posts
Showing posts with label political rhetoric. Show all posts

Tuesday, October 29, 2024

Current Political Violence In The USA

 


One last political post before the election.  I have been working on a graphic on the political violence scenario and how it has drastically changed in the past 8 years. Part of the issue with aggression and violence is that it is generally very difficult for most people to talk about. They lack the vocabulary and for a long time there was the suggestion that it may have been the fault of the victim.  It took far too long to recognize that this was a dynamic in domestic violence situations and modernize those laws to set limits on the violence and ultimately prevent homicides. Another factor that recently came to light was the issue of firearm access by perpetrators of domestic violence. A recent court case challenged the ban on firearms possession by these men and contrary to the general trend of increasing gun extremism that ban was upheld (United States v. Rahimi).

I do not intend to elaborate on what is contained in the table. I encourage any reader to do your own research on what I have posted.  I have extensive references, but with these political posts – most people do not seem to be interested, especially when they run counter to the conventional wisdom or prevailing political rhetoric. Instead I will make some general comments on aggression, violence, and its effects.

As an acute care psychiatrist, I was faced with the problem on a daily basis.  Aggressive and violent people brought to my care generally by the police or paramedics.  The people I saw were involved in fights, shootouts, violent confrontations with the police, homicides (real and attempted), vandalism, threatening behavior, and suicide attempts.  The behaviors were extreme enough to precipitate 911 calls and for emergency responders to bring them to my hospital.  Not all hospitals take these calls because not all hospitals are set up to deal with violence and aggression.  The staff and the physicians need to approach it as a treatable problem.  That is the first lesson. Violence and aggression – even when it is caused by psychiatric illness is not considered a medical problem.  It is considered a moral problem.  In other words – the person intended to commit violent acts because they are either morally deficient or simply have no moral code. The vast majority of people I treated in this situation had a severe psychiatric disorder and did not know what they were doing. They could not appreciate the wrongfulness of their act.

In order for the person with aggression to be admitted to my unit – they had to have a psychiatric diagnosis rather than just criminal behavior.  That is an imperfect triage criterion and in a few cases, people were admitted with either criminal behavior or aggressive behavior that was goal directed to get what they want. Common examples include intimidating people for money or sex or just disagreeing with them. The associated excuses would be: “Well he/she had it coming.”, “They were just there when I went off.”, or "They did not give me what I wanted.”  These are all attitudes that people use who see others as strictly a means to an end. Other people are just there to be manipulated to get what they want. They are not seen as people just struggling along like everyone else with important goals and relationships. Resentment is a common theme and many of the perpetrators see themselves as getting a bad deal in life, not getting what other people have, and that may include loyalty in relationships.

All of that is a backdrop to the actual aggression or violence.  No matter how egregious that violence and aggression is – it is very common to see it minimized after the fact. That minimization can take the form of complete denial “I wasn’t there” to partial denial “I did not mean to kill him.”

On the less obvious end – aggression can include threatening behavior that involves appearing to be very angry and using profanity in someone’s presence for no clear reason, throwing objects, destroying property, right up to specific threats to kill or injure a person.  There is some confusion over how well these behaviors predict actual violent acts that result in injury but there are two considerations.  The argument has been made that psychiatrists really can not predict violence very well and that may be true for routine evaluations of relatively stable people in outpatient setting.  The prevalence of violence in that population is so low that I would not anticipate being able to predict it.  That changes in an acute care setting where the transition from verbal aggression or aggression toward property to physical violence against people happens very quickly.  The goal is always to stop it before the physical phase.

 At the societal level, the laws have slowly been changing to catch up.  Domestic violence laws lagged for decades until many states adopted the law that if a call occurred, an arrest had to be made. The law about domestic violence convictions leading to no gun possession was a similar development.  Finally, terroristic threat laws made it illegal to threaten people before any physical violence occurred. These terroristic threats laws have developed over the past 30 years and are really a major development compared with the idea that the person making the threats hasn’t done anything yet and we can’t do anything unless they do something.  It is hard to imagine how many people were directly threatened and heard that response from law enforcement.

The driving force behind these legal changes was recognition of what the victims were going through. In some cases, years of harassment, needing to take extraordinary measures to assure their safety, and suffering the effects of this extreme stress in the form of chronic insomnia, anxiety, panic attacks, post-traumatic stress disorder, depression, and physical symptoms.  In many cases jobs and families were disrupted.

The groups I named in the above graphic have been through all of that and more.  In the Insurrection there were estimates of 140-170 officers injured and 5 dead – one from injuries sustained at the scene and 4 subsequently by suicide.  I have not seen any specific reports of the number of police affected by mental health symptoms but expect it is significant. Various efforts have been made to minimize the event and the media seems to go along with them. Even though the popular press does say that one party and one candidate has been lying continuously that the 2020 election had been “stolen” – very little is done on a day-by-day basis to confront this lie.   Nobody is saying that we have a Presidential candidate who attempted to overthrow the elected government of the United States and currently has operatives in place to disrupt the current election. That may be why 1 out of 3 election workers report being harassed often to the point that they quit volunteer jobs that they have been in for decades. 

The remaining groups in the table are self-evident.  We have all seen people screaming and threatening in school board town hall meetings.  There are substantiated reports of severe threats to public health officials and disaster workers. This is all politically motivated aggression and violence that is precipitated by misinformation and political rhetoric. A good recent example was the attempt to connect anti-immigrant rhetoric to hurricane relief and suggest that funds were being diverted to undocumented immigrants. Gun extremism and abortion clinic violence predates the most recent cycle but are good examples of the process. Make emotional inaccurate claims, blame somebody for the problem even if they are law abiding, and let the chips fall where they may.  This process just keeps repeating itself with a party that always doubles down, never acknowledges they are wrong, and never acknowledges what they are really doing – dividing people and turning them against one another.   This line of rhetoric also distracts from the fact that the party in question really has no acceptable policy.  When their self-proclaimed genius economic policy was vetted by Nobel laureates in economics it was found to be seriously deficient.

When I posted this graphic on another site I was immediately confronted with the question about violence and crime created by undocumented immigrants.  I responded with a study done by the Department of Justice based on the arrest records of the most right wing state in the US – Texas. That study shows that these people are much less likely to be arrested for violent or property crimes than citizens born in the US.  Even without knowing about it – it makes sense. The people at the southern border are fleeing corrupt governments and criminals in South and Central America.  The last thing they want to see happen is to be deported back to their country of origin. Because they are undocumented, they need to maintain as low a profile as possible. That would include no encounters with law enforcement.

The idea that political violence could be compared to violence by undocumented immigrants is a feature of the rhetoric used to obscure the real problem. That real problem is that there should be no political violence at all in the United States.  Politics in this country is supposed to operate on the peaceful transfer of power and no party using its power to intimidate either the voters or the election process. We are way past that at this point and it is all on one party.  The political violence is a direct effect of dishonesty and manipulation.  There has not been an adequate effort by the opposition to push back in many of these areas and that leads me to have grave concerns about the upcoming election.

I am hoping that the vote rejects political violence and all that involves so that people can feel safe and we can start to focus on real problems instead of contrived political problems.  You can get rid of political violence by voting it out - at least in this election.  It will be a worse problem to get rid of if it becomes institutionalized.

 

George Dawson, MD, DFAPA


Supplementary 1:  Unfortunately I have to keep adding boxes.  The latest is a direct comment form former President Trump.  Before anyone suggests he was just "joking" or "nobody takes him seriously" or tires to explain it in any other way consider this.  This is unprecedented discourse in an American election.  It follows Trump threatening to use the military against his perceived "enemies form within."  It should be fairly clear that he considers political opponents or in many cases people who just disagree with him as enemies.  Violent rhetoric aside - this is not an attitude any reasonable politician can have when they are supposed to represent all of the American people.



Saturday, September 14, 2024

If It Was 1968 – I could get a New Car for $2400….

 


Odd statement for a psychiatric blog?  I decided to address my favorite economic fallacy of election season and that is the effect of the President.  It came up as recently as four days ago in the Presidential debate.  During that debate – Trump claimed that he created the “greatest economy” and made the following statement:

“When I had it, I had tariffs and yet I had no inflation. Look, we've had a terrible economy because inflation has --which is really known as a country buster. It breaks up countries. We have inflation like very few people have ever seen before. Probably the worst in our nation's history. We were at 21%. But that's being generous because many things are 50, 60, 70, and 80% higher than they were just a few years ago.”

It was not clear to me if his statement abut 21% was supposed to be under his administration or Biden-Harris, especially when he makes the claim that “I had no inflation.”  That brings me to economic fallacy #1 in the Presidential race:

1:  Inflation is a fact of life in the American economy and there has never been a recent President with “no inflation”:

You don’t have to believe me. The evidence is abundant starting with retirement savings.  All the retirement advice you get gives you strategies on how to keep pace with inflation over the next 30 years.  There will be additional advice on how to keep up with inflation during your retirement years.  There is no advice that you can forget about inflation because it does not exist at times.  The title of this post refers to an ad for the Ford Mustang in 1964 that ran constantly on television with the title “$2,368 F.O.B Detroit.”  The starting price for a Ford Mustang today is $30,920. 

You don’t have to rely on those kinds of memories.  There is actual economic data tabulated.  The only problem is that it is not typically tabulated by Presidential term.  You must add that yourself.  I used the Bureau of Labor Statistics purchasing power calculator that uses a broad index of consumer goods to look at the last 7 administrations:

President

Years

Inflation

Biden

2021-2024

20%

Trump

2017-2021

12%

Obama

2009-2017

15%

Bush

2001-2009

22%

Clinton

1993-2001

24%

Bush

1989-1993

12%

Reagan

1981-1989

42%

 Inspecting those numbers – most people can come up with explanations for the variability.  Explanations of policies under any President responsible for the numbers is doubtful.  Reagan and his “trickle down” economic policies were a mainstay of Republican rhetoric for decades and he has the worst inflation rate.  The most likely difference between the Trump and the Biden figures was decreased demand and unemployment under Trump creating less demand and pricing pressure and then increased employment, financial incentives, and pent-up demand as the pandemic improved under Biden.

The rhetoric of the economy often leads people to come up with lists of commonly purchased items and how those prices have been affected.  First off – price inflation is expected irrespective of who is in the White House, but I encourage anyone to not take these lists at face value and do an easy recheck.  Here is one I did not too long ago after somebody posted their list of inflated items on Facebook.


Note that the GOP version in the first two columns does not match the prices I got off a Walmart web site on May 7, 2024.  The GOP version shows uniform increases in all prices between 2020 and 2024 and that is not the case.  Half of the items are less than they were in 2020 (see sparklines in last column).  Anyone can do this exercise when they see these postings about price increases of common items over time.  Secondly, there are factors that affect these prices that no President or country could conceivably control.  A good example is coffee.  Brazil and Vietnam are the largest producers and their production is currently affected by drought and climate change. Despite the current decreased production coffee prices are not as high as they were in 1976-1977 when over 70% of Brazilian coffee was affected by a frost and coffee prices doubled to $4.19/pound or $19/pound corrected to 2022 dollars. 

Do these lists really prove anything in terms of the candidates?  Not really because once again inflation is expected.  The political rhetoric is such that the GOP is portraying the current inflation as catastrophic.  Certainly, the higher end of the range that Trump describes has not happened.  A much more reliable index of inflation is available from the Federal Reserve.


The only relatively flat spot on that curve was at the peak of the COVID pandemic with decreased demand for goods and services. As demand increased the CPI increases and the Biden administration took over at that point.  The commonly quoted inflation numbers are consumer prices defined as: “Inflation as measured by the consumer price index reflects the annual percentage change in the cost to the average consumer of acquiring a basket of goods and services that may be fixed or changed at specified intervals, such as yearly. The Laspeyres formula is generally used


2:  The most direct and sustained effects on inflation are initiated by the non-partisan Federal Reserve Bank:

The Federal Reserve Bank has been independent of political influence since 1951.   Between 1935 and 1951  “monetary policy would basically be dictated by Congress and the White House…”.  Even after that period, the Fed has come under pressure from the executive branch.  The Fed actions are a potent driver of the economy and check on inflation as evidenced by the following graphic on interest rate adjustments.  These interest rate adjustments are done based on macroeconomic rather than political considerations and many administrations have disagreed with them because they did not seem politically expedient.  Note the differences in interest rates over the past 2 administrations.  It is also generally agreed that the US economy has recovered post pandemic better than other high-income countries. Should an administration take credit for that or the Fed?

3:  Academic comparisons of the impact of Presidents on the economy show little effect.

The best-known study of the issue was done by Blinder and Watson (3).  They conclude that by all measures the economy does much better under Democrats in Congress and the White House.  It is not even close.  But they did not leave it there and went on to see if there was any clear explanation for this phenomenon at the policy level or based on the make-up of administrations and there was not.  They take it a step further and look at whether the economy was just poised for rapid growth at the time Democrats were elected and that was also not an explanation.  They consider various luck factors that are shocks to consumer expectations and find that makes up part of the difference.  In the end they find no complete explanations but suggest more favorable international conditions and consumer optimism may have something to do with it.  In short, the economy does better under Democrats but there is no clear explanation why that is.  Why then is it a top priority for the election?  The answer is that it is purely emotional appeal rhetoric with no basis in reality. 

Conclusion:

If you are really basing your vote for the President on the economy – find a different issue.  There is very little to no evidence that the President has much of an effect.  If you do your own research - there is a ton of information on this that is as accessible as doing a simple Google search on: “Does the President have any effect on the economy?”   There are papers, podcasts, blogs, interviews, radio programs, and more academic papers that say the same thing – probably not much if any of an effect. When I hear that polls suggest that most Americans think one party or another can manage the economy better – what is that based on?  A candidate saying that during his term he had the “best economy ever.”?  There is absolutely no evidence for a statement like that.

So “its not the economy stupid.”  Move on to another issue.  If you vote based on that issue – you are voting on unsubstantiated rhetoric,

 

George Dawson, MD, DFAPA

 

References:

1:  Overview: The History of the Federal Reserve.  September 13,2021:  https://www.federalreservehistory.org/essays/federal-reserve-history

2:  de Soyres, Francois, Joaquin Garcia-Cabo Herrero, Nils Goernemann, Sharon Jeon, Grace Lofstrom, and Dylan Moore (2024). "Why is the US GDP recovering faster than other advanced economies?," FEDS Notes. Washington: Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System, May 17, 2024, https://doi.org/10.17016/2380-7172.3495

3:  Blinder AS, Watson AW.  Presidents and the US Economy: An econometric exploration.  National Bureau of Economic Research. Working Paper 20324, July 2014.  http://www.nber.org/papers/w20324

4:  Bilen C, El Chami D, Mereu V, Trabucco A, Marras S, Spano D. A Systematic Review on the Impacts of Climate Change on Coffee Agrosystems. Plants (Basel). 2022 Dec 25;12(1):102. doi: 10.3390/plants12010102.