Does Publicizing Mass Shooters Benefit Anyone?

I ran across this perspective posted on the Kottke blog.  It is basically a journalist writing an opinion piece about why the names of mass shooters should be used in the media.  I think it is a reaction to the banning of the use of the names and details of mass shooters by some law enforcement and the media.  The Sheriff in the most recent mass shooting incident refused to release the name of the shooter.  The argument against releasing the name of the shooter goes something like this.  At least part of the motivation of some of these shooters involves the fame and publicity that they will achieve based on the incident.  The mass shooting incidents have been in my estimation fairly compared to terrorist incidents where the victims are killed in some of the most horrible and sadistic ways possible as part of the media campaign by these organizations.  It enhances any kidnaping and extortion threats that they may have and also enhances their image as a ruthless and single-minded entity.  Until recently that behavior was also a ticket to widespread international media exposure.  When the media cycle becomes knee jerk in response to mass shootings or terrorist events it is predictable no-cost publicity to both types of perpetrators.

There is additional evidence in the personal effects of many of these shooters and well as evidence from the staging of the events that publicity is a strong motivating factor.  The shooters often have computers and written statements about the motivation for their acts, and some of that material describes the event as something for the world to see.

The counterargument from the journalist seems to be that it is important for the public to hear all this information.  He makes the expected argument of the press that all of the news needs to be reported.  He also spins the political angle and suggests that conservative gun advocates including the sheriff involved in the most recent incident and then Fox News have elected not to name the perpetrator and connects this with the right wing tendency to talk about mental illness being the problem and not uncontrolled access to firearms.

I am at the point where I cringe when reading these highly politicized arguments probably because that is all that I hear when it comes to psychiatry.  The general form of the argument is that people taking a certain position have a certain ideology and therefore the conflict of interest issue reigns supreme.  Because a news service or a sheriff have been identified as being right wing and supporters of continued open access to firearms, anything they say about maintaining the anonymity of the perpetrator can be discounted based on conflict of interest.  In other words, by maintaining the anonymity of the shooter and focusing on the mental state of the shooter, the focus is shifted inappropriately away from more functional legislation to reduce firearm access.  The writer acknowledges that part of the motivation of some of these shooters is publicity or infamy whether they survive or not.  It is hard to deny because a review of the personal effects of some of these shooters makes it explicit.  The author takes the view that denying this publicity essentially gives the appearance that something is being done and this is bullshit.

First off, that does not meet my definition of bullshit from the definitive essay by Frankfurt.  According to Frankfurt, the main differentiating point between bullshitters and liars is that bullshitters have a blatant disregard for the truth.  The truth in this case is that irrespective of political motivations it is highly likely that denying these men the publicity that they seek will result in fewer of these crimes.  It might even provide a public health path to treatment for many of these individual instead of acting out.  I would suggest statutes that address the issue of how mass shooters should be handled in the event of any incident and would not only see anonymity as being important, but also confiscating property and all of the written material and images from the perpetrator and making them available for academic study, but not for the evening news.

The author also seems blind to the role of journalists in this process.  Every massacre triggers the standard response from journalists that I have written about on this blog many times.  All of the shocking details, the interviews with the aggrieved, the response from politicians, and the "profiling" of the perpetrator.  Then after a few days, the President comes on and we are all told to move on.  It seems that the President in his latest address has questioned the value of this process before members of the press have including this author.

My conclusion is that there has to be obvious progress in the area of gun control (yes - I said control).  But I have also accepted the fact that the power structure in this country does not have to yield to public opinion.  My decades of treating violent and aggressive people have also led me to understand that this is also a public health problem and as a public health problem - multiple measures need to be in place.   Restricting wide spread publicity for the perpetrators is one of many logical options.

There is also the issue of contagion.  Does a large incident with a lot of news coverage trigger copycat crimes?  There have been some anecdotal reports that copycat crimes occur in the specific area of school shooting.  The authors of a recent PLOS article (2), analyze the USA Today Mass Killing database and the the Brady Campaign School Shooting database.   The original databases and any modifications to them are available at this link.  The authors comment that a contagion model has been applied to several natural events like the financial markets, burglaries and terrorist attacks.  The authors specify the model they are using and go on to show that according to the USA Today database there was a mass killing (involving 4 or more people killed) every 12.5 in the US.  For the Brady database school sooting occurred every 31.6 days.  The authors illustrate there is a contagion effect for mass killings involving firearms but not mass killings that do not involve firearms.  They also show correlations between state prevalence of firearm ownership and mass shootings, but the authors note that mass shooters commit suicide 48% of the time and that is much higher than the expected suicide rate by perpetrators committing a single act of homicide (5-10%).  Mass shooters who commit suicide also kill 22% more people than mass shooters who do not.  The graphics and statistics in this article are great and I highly recommend a look at the graphs showing what part of the data is due to the contagion effect.  I also applaud the authors efforts to publish essentially public health research in an area that has been actively suppressed by Congress.  Scientific research on firearms policy is apparently incompatible with the Second Amendment.

So it turns out that there are probably legitimate reasons for withholding the identity of mass shooters and decreasing the disclosures about the incident and in some cases the audiovisual material that they have produced to promote their activity.  There is a well known journalistic tendency to wrap themselves in the flag when it comes to their not having complete access and the ability to disclose information, but the process is far from perfect and in many cases they defer to national security.   In the case of the databases involved there is clear asymmetry in terms of which incidents get publicity and which do not.  This is an opportunity for them to provide some news about public health interventions to prevent violence and mass shootings.

I don't think the importance of the notoriety or contagion factors in motivating mass shooters can be cancelled out by a conflict of interest argument.  But the conflict of interest card seems to be played like it is the trump card these days.

I also don't accept the "we as a society have made our choice" argument.  It's not really them it is us.  That argument is a stark contrast to how our government runs.  "We" are no more responsible for a society flush with guns that "we" were for three unnecessary wars based largely on fictional threats.  That oligarchy can function primarily with the full cooperation and lack of critical analysis by the American press.  The fact that late night comedians can produce more analysis of these issues than mainstream journalists is an indication of how much serious reporting is lacking.

There is probably no better example of reporting deficiency than how mass shooting incidents have been handled for decades.


George Dawson, MD, DFAPA


1:  Josh Marshall.  The Great Evasion.  TalkingPointsMemo.com  October 2, 2015.

2:  Towers S, Gomez-Lievano A, Khan M, Mubayi A, Castillo-Chavez C. Contagion in Mass Killings and School Shootings. PLoS One. 2015 Jul 2;10(7):e0117259. doi: 10.1371/journal.pone.0117259. eCollection 2015. PubMed PMID: 26135941.

"The only thing that stops a bad guy with a gun is a good guy with a gun"

That is a direct quote from the NRA's chief lobbyist Wayne Lapierre.  In the same NYTimes piece he goes on to say that declaring our schools gun free zones serves only: "“tell every insane killer in America that schools are the safest place to effect maximum mayhem with minimum risk.”  There has been some mild outrage in response to this comments but I don't know what people would expect from the NRA.  They see guns as a solution to everything.  They literally believe that with guns there is less crime despite the hard data that points to the fact that the USA has the highest (by far) homicide rate by firearms, the highest rate of gun ownership, and the highest rate of assault deaths of any of the top 30 countries of the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development.  In fact, this NY Times graphic of the data shows that over half of the homicide rate is firearm related.  The total homicides in the US at 9,960 is nearly seven times greater than the total of all the other countries on the list.  The total number of suicides by firearms greatly exceeds this number (18,735 in 2009).  It seems to me that the gun data suggests that we currently have maximum mayhem with maximum risk.

Getting back to the proposed NRA solution.  Let's look at the arithmetic first.  Just considering the number of public schools in the US, current data from the National Center for Education Statistics puts that number at 98,817.  Assuming a cost of one armed guard per school with vacation coverage and benefits I would conservatively estimate a cost of about $100,000 per year or a total of about $9.8 billion dollars per year.  That is a substantial outlay of capital for what is an unproven strategy.  According to the Wikipedia list there have been 40 school shootings since 1989.  Using a a mean number of schools during the period (or about 91,638) would mean that the odds of one of these armed guards encountering a shooter would be about 2/91,638 on an annual basis.  The Transportation Security Administration responsible for airport security has a total budget of  $7.7 billion and they cover 450 airports but confiscate 1,300 firearms and 125,000 prohibited items per year.  $929 million of the TSA budget is for the Federal Air Marshal Service that assigns agents to commercial flights.  To put an armed guard in the schools would roughly cost what it costs to secure air travel in the US.  The main difference would be that school guards might have a much lower level of vigilance than air travel security and they would need to be very vigilant to head off a sudden and potentially very lethal attack.

Arithmetic aside, there is also the question of associated costs.  In medicine we are familiar with the screening arguments for breast and prostate cancer.  There is always a false positive and false negative cost.  With false positive PSAs and mammograms there is the ordeal of unnecessary biopsies and exposure to other unnecessary tests.  There is no way to estimate the impact of armed guards at schools.  Currently there are about 500,000 violent crime and over a million thefts committed against teachers in America's middle and high schools.  In a previous Institute of Medicine report,  the authors found that a  "substantial number of boys" carry firearms in schools.  That same study reported:

"Despite all this effort to keep guns from children  the committee was somewhat astounded at the ease with which the young people in these cases acquired the weapons they used.  Only in the Jonesboro case were the powerful weapons in the home of one of the too well secured for them to access.  But it was easy to defeat the security measures of another relative and get hold of a powerful semiautomatic rifle with a scope.  In general, it is easy for young teens to circumvent both the law and informal controls designed to deny them weapons they use in their crimes." (ref 1)

There is also the risk of unintentional discharge of weapons.  The New York City Police Department keeps a public record of all weapons discharges from its 33,497 police officers.  According to this report there have been 15-27 "unintentional discharges" per year over the past ten years.  With a school workforce nearly three times as large and possibly less vigilant than an NYPD officer that is potentially a lot of accidental discharges.   How many are acceptable in and around our schools?  The false negative/false positive cost of putting  armed guards into schools based on these factors is really unknown.  

Considering this problem has also led me to think about some epidemiological concepts that we were all taught in medical school.  Primary prevention measures are designed to reduce the incidence of new cases of disease.  Secondary prevention is focused more on people who are identified as being at risk but who are unaware of the fact that they may have the problem.  Tertiary prevention occurs after the problem is declared.  In the case of suicidal or homicidal behavior that means after the critical incident occurs.  This paper looks at these concepts in the case of suicidal behavior.  As far as I can tell there has been no exhaustive look at a timeline of all of the preventive factors that occur prior to mass shooting events or school violence events.  The usual method of analysis is looking at cases for a common profile and as the IOM report showed - there was none.

This analysis cannot predict whether the NRA stand on guns in schools will be protective or not.  It is much more complex than a statement that guns are a solution to gun crimes.  Based on what we know about these situations a key strategy is preventing the shooter from picking up the weapon in the first place.

George Dawson, MD, DFAPA

1.  National Research Council and Institute of Medicine. (2003) Deadly Lessons - Understanding Lethal School Violence.  Case Studies of School Violence Committee.  Mark H. Moore, Carol V. Petrie, Anthony A. Braga, and Brenda L. McLaughlin, Editors.  Division of Behavioral and Social Sciences and Education.  Washington, DC: The National Academies Press.

2.  Ganz D, Braquehais MD, Sher L (2010) Secondary Prevention of Suicide. PLoS Med 7(6): e1000271. doi:10.1371/journal.pmed.1000271

3.  New York City Police Department.  Annual Firearms Discharge Report 2011.

4.  Meet  the Press Transcript. Sunday December 23, 2013.  Wayne LaPierre discusses current NRA positions on school safety and gun control.

Guns Are Not Cooling Off Between Mass Shootings

I have previously posted my concerns about mass shootings and the general paralysis on dealing with this problem.  The gun lobby has unquestionable political power on this issue, but that is also due to judicial interpretation of the Second Amendment as it is written.  Today's New York Times describes a mass shooting at an elementary school in Connecticut.  At the time I am typing this, the death toll is 20 children, 6 adults, and the gunman.  This incident occurs three days after a shopping mall shooting in Oregon.

Most people would think that nothing would be more motivating for major societal changes than children being attacked in this manner.  Unfortunately this is not the first time that children have been victimized by mass shooters.  On October 2, 2006 a gunman shot 10 girls and killed 5 before committing suicide.  According to the Wikipedia article that was the third school shooting that week.  Altogether there have been 31 school shootings since the Columbine incident on April 20, 1999.

My question and the question I have been asking for the past decade is what positive steps are going to be taken to resolve this problem?  How many more lives need to be lost?  How many more children need to be shot while they are attending school?  Some may consider these questions to be provocative, but given the dearth of action and the excuses we hear from public health officials and politicians, I am left in the position of continuing to sound an alarm that should have been heard a couple of decades ago.  After all, the elections are over.  The major parties don't have to worry about alienating the pro-gun or the pro-gun control lobbyists and activists.  This will not be solved as a Second Amendment or political issue.  I have said it before and I will say it again - the basic approach to the problem is a scientific one and a proactive public health one that involves the following sequence of action:

1.  Get the message out that homicidal thoughts - especially thoughts that involve random violence toward strangers are abnormal and treatable.  The public health message should include what to do when the thoughts have been identified.

2.  Provide explanations for changes in thought patterns that lead to homicidal thinking.

3.  Provide a discussion of the emotional, personal and economic costs of this kind of violence.

4.  Emphasize that the precursors to homicidal thinking are generally treatable and provide accessible treatment options and interventions.

5.  The cultural symbol of the lone gunman in our society is a mythical figure that needs to go.  There needs to be a lot of work done on dispelling that myth.  I don't think that this repetitive behavior by individuals with a probable psychosis is an accident.  Delusions do not occur in a vacuum and if there is a mythical explanation out there for righting the wrongs of a delusional person - someone will incorporate it into their belief system.  The lone gunman is a grandiose and delusional solution for too many people.  If I am right it will affect even more.

6.  Study that sequence of events and outcomes locally to figure out what modifications are best in specific areas.

One of the main problems here may be the deterioration in psychiatric services over the past three decades largely as a result of government and managed care manipulations.  Ironically being a danger to yourself or others is considered the main reason for being in an inpatient psychiatric unit these days.  I wonder how much of the inertia in dealing with the problem of mass homicide comes from the same forces that want to restrict access to psychiatric care?  Setting up the remaining inpatient units to deal with a part of this problem would require more resources for infrastructure, staff training, and to recruit the expertise needed to make a difference.

The bottom line here is that the mass homicide epidemic will only be solved by public health measures.  This is not a question of good versus evil.  This is not a question of accepting this as a problem that cannot be solved, grieving, and moving on.  This is a question of identifiable thought patterns changing and leading to homicidal behavior and intervening at that level.

George Dawson, MD, DFAPA